We've arrived at the quarterfinals stage of the first clay-court Masters 1000 of the season, and there are some intriguing matchups to look at.
Alexander Zverev will take on Jannik Sinner while Stefanos Tsitsipas will battle Diego Schwartzman. Elsewhere, American Taylor Fritz will look to continue his great run-of-form against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, the man who ousted Novak Djokovic.
Read on for our tennis analysts' best bets ahead of an important day of tennis.
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Taylor Fritz (-115) vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (-105)
5 a.m. ET
David Gertler: Sometimes, the hardest part about a big win is backing up that win. So, it’s particularly impressive that Alejandro Davidovich Fokina followed up his victory over Novak Djokovic by easily taking down the red-hot David Goffin in straight sets.
Against Goffin, Davidovich Fokina won 71% of his first serves while serving at 82% first serves in. The Spaniard also won 52% of his return points and broke Goffin’s serve five times. Davidovich Fokina was all over Goffin’s serve and generated 17 break points in the match.
Davidovich Fokina has been very solid from the baseline, and it’s been hard for opponents to hit through him. The variety in Davidovich Fokina’s game is also outstanding, as he can keep opponents off-balance with his perfect drop shots, slices, and angles. Davidovich Fokina also has done a good job of staying aggressive in rallies, as opposed to relying on his retrieval skills.
Taylor Fritz has continued his good form in Monte Carlo. In his latest win, Fritz beat Sebastian Korda 7-6 (4), 7-5.
Fritz won 76% of his service points and was only broken once against Korda. Fritz hit 11 aces compared to one double fault and did a great job of protecting his serve. It’s not surprise, then, that he’s won the 18th-highest percentage of service games on the ATP Tour over the last 52 weeks.
Fritz has become a different player since his run to the Indian Wells title. Overall, the American has won 13 of his last 15 matches and is becoming a reliable player toward the top of the ATP Tour. His serve has become one of the biggest on tour, the controlled aggression from his backhand wing is superb, and he’s also able to ramp up the power on his forehand.
In this match, Davidovich Fokina’s movement around the court will be key, and the Spaniard does a great job of absorbing power on clay. This will make Fritz uncomfortable, as he will struggle to hit through Davidovich Fokina.
Davidovich Fokina’s variety will also help to break Fritz’s rhythm from the baseline. The American won’t be able to just slug it out from the baseline; Davidovich Fokina will move him around the court and make far too many points, for Fritz’s taste, into cat-and-mouse affairs.
Pick: Davidovich Fokina -105 via BetMGM
Alexander Zverev (-225) vs. Jannik Sinner (+175)
7:40 a.m. ET
Avery Zimmerman: The crowd-favorite Jannik Sinner played one of the best clay matches of his career on Thursday, recovering from a set and a break deficit against Andrey Rublev to secure his spot in the quarterfinals.
For Sinner, the problem may lie within that statement itself. He quite literally played as well as he could from 0-1 in the second set down and onwards, and the same style of tennis won't be as effective against Zverev.
Rublev was incredibly inconsistent on serve and from the baseline in the final two sets of the match, offering Sinner seven double faults and a second serve that averaged under 82 miles per hour. That won't cut it against Sinner, but Zverev presents a different challenge. He'll have the stability both from the baseline and the service line to consistently push Sinner.
Of course, Zverev is always prone to second serve issues, but thus far in Monte Carlo, he's compiled 14 aces and three double faults in two matches. On the other hand, Rublev conceded seven double faults without picking up a single ace in Sinner's last match.
The German is happy to concede space on the court in order to counter-strike from the baseline, and Sinner's aggression won't be as impactful against someone like that, particularly with how Zverev has executed this week. Both the forehand and backhand — the latter of which will be the best shot on the court tomorrow — have been reliable and sustainable through all times.
Sinner also put forth his best service match of the tournament against Rublev, and we can expect a touch of regression from him. In his first two matches, Sinner compiled eight aces and nine double faults, but against Rublev, that split was six and two.
Behind his first serve, Zverev has averaged 72% of points throughout the week, but the bigger number is his second serve, where he's won 47% or more of his points in each match. Sinner won't be able to pick up the initiative as consistently on return, and it could result in far more errors and rushed balls from him.
There's a reason why Zverev's clay Elo Rating is above 2000, and I think he'll show that on Friday.
Pick: Zverev -2.5 Games (-140 via PointsBet)
Stefanos Tsitsipas (-240) vs. Diego Schwartzman (+180)
9 a.m. ET
Avery Zimmerman: Both Tsitsipas and Schwartzman have played some brilliant tennis in their opening rounds, and you can expect that to translate into their match on Friday.
The Argentine looked down and out against Lorenzo Musetti when he was down a set and a break, but much like Sinner, he battled back and found his rhythm to control the match from there on out.
Tsitsipas has revived his game since suffering disappointing events in Indian Wells and Miami, beating Fabio Fognini and Laslo Djere in straight sets to reach the quarterfinals. He'll face a stronger test in the form of Schwartzman.
The duo already met this year down under, combining for a quality three-set match that ultimately went the way of Schwartzman. Of course, that match was played on a hard court, and they'll now be on clay, in the conditions of Monte Carlo that are as good as they get for Tsitsipas.
While Tsitsipas maintained an outrageous 89% hold rate on clay in 2021, he has conceded nine break points in Monte Carlo. The Greek has only lost one of those, but Schwartzman is one of the world's best returners and ball-strikers, so you can expect him to pick up a few breaks of serve at the very least. Schwartzman has broken his opponents 19 times on the week while allowing just 19 holds.
At the same time, Schwartzman concedes a substantial amount of impact on serve, getting broken 12 times himself.
This is one of those clay-court matches that should feature some excellent rallies, a number of breaks and substantial swings in flow throughout. The best thing to do here is back the over and enjoy the show.
Pick: Over 21.5 Games (-115 via Caesars)
