Djokovic vs. Schwartzman Odds
| Djokovic Odds | -1400 |
| Schwartzman Odds | +750 |
| Total | 29.5 (-115 / -105) |
| Time | 6:30 a.m. ET |
| Odds via DraftKings. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here. | |
Novak Djokovic has yet to face much of a challenge at Roland Garros, but his toughest test of the week awaits him in the fourth round.
That's where he'll meet Diego Schwartzman, one of the best clay-court players around and a player who broke into the top 10 just a couple of years ago.
Where does the value lie in this match? Does Schwartzman stand a chance? Let's dig into this one.
Djokovic Rolling Through Roland Garros
To this point, nothing has bothered the World No. 1 at Roland Garros. He's come through three matches quite easily in straight sets, facing a backboard, a player coached by his old coach and a player with a big serve.
He's yet to drop a set and was only really threatened in the third set against Alex Molcan in the second round, where he made it go to a tiebreaker. It's clear at this point Djokovic is in form, but that wasn't always the case.
The Serb started off his season at home after he was detained and sent out of Australia. It then took him a little while to get into match shape as he lost in Dubai to Jiri Vesely and in Monte Carlo to Alejandro Davidovich-Fokina. It wasn't until Madrid that Djokovic finally began to look like himself and then he won a Masters event in Rome the following week.
Djokovic looks poised to march past Schwartzman, past Rafael Nadal and into the final at Roland Garros.
Schwartzman Possesses Unique Skill Set
Make no mistake, Schwartzman is a very, very good player. He's ranked No. 16 in the world and, as noted above, finished the 2020 season in the top 10 after some impressive results, such as a win over Rafael Nadal en route to the final in Rome and an appearance in the semifinals at Roland Garros.
That run to the final in Rome pit him against Djokovic in the final, where he was steamrolled in two sets. That's not unfamiliar territory, though.
Schwartzman has faced Djokovic six times and he's only managed to compete in two of those matches, both of which were on clay. Djokovic took out Schwartzman in five sets at the 2017 French Open and then again in Rome as they went the maximum three sets with Djokovic taking the proceedings in a straightforward third set.
On a hardcourt, these two were never close. In the 2020 Rome final Djokovic won in straight sets, 7-5, 6-3.
Schwartzman does not possess any one big weapon, rather he takes away your biggest one with his all-world defense. That makes him an interesting matchup with Djokovic, who possesses the very same qualities. The Serb obviously has a little more pop on his serve and groundstrokes.
Betting Value
I think there's something to be said here for how Schwartzman performed in the three meetings between these two on clay. Pushing the match the distance in the first two was impressive and even though their meeting in Rome was a straight-setter, he hung around in a close first set.
Schwartzman is hardly playing his best tennis right now, dropping a set to Andrey Kuznetsov and two to Jaume Munar, a player he has historically owned. He managed to breeze through Grigor Dimitrov, but his opponent in that match made more than 50 unforced errors in three sets.
It's simply never easy beating Schwartzman on clay and, despite his recent results, I have to believe he will be up for this match and push Djokovic at least to a fourth set. I'll take the security of the total here, which will still allow us to cash in a close three-set affair.
Pick: Over 29.5 (-115)
