Novak Djokovic vs Alexei Popyrin Preview: Djokovic – Popyrin Odds, Picks & Predictions

Djokovic vs Popyrin Odds, Djokovic – Popyrin Picks

Novak Djokovic's third round matchup at Wimbledon is against 47th-ranked Australian Alexei Popyrin. Popyrin and Djokovic met earlier this season in the second round of the Australian Open, where Djokovic edged out a tight 4-setter at 6-3 4-6 7-6(4) 6-3. Popyrin now looks to extend the deepest Wimbledon run of his career against one of the most accomplished men in the tournament's history. Let's look into how you can find betting value on this intriguing third round matchup.

Here is my Djokovic vs Popyrin preview along with my pick and prediction.

Djokovic

Djokovic is coming off of a second round matchup where we saw some more eyebrow raising play against a far inferior opponent, something that is becoming a trend within Novak's 2024 season. 227th-ranked Jacob Fearnley was able to steal the third set from Novak with the help of a home crowd behind him. All great players drop sets, however throughout this year these type of score lines have become rather common in Novak's Grand Slam runs.

Djokovic has a career record of 15-2 in the third round of Wimbledon. He has not been taken to a fourth set since playing a young Hurkacz in 2019. Throughout most of his career, the third round is typically where Novak catches his stride in Major's. In fact, the last time he lost in the third round of a grand slam tournament was back in 2016 at Wimbledon to Sam Querrey. Since then, his 28 straight victories have resulted in 18 straight-set wins.

If we look into Djokovic's history in matches similar to the one that he plays tomorrow, we find some interesting results. Popyrin stands tall at 6'5" and boasts a powerful serve. When Djokovic plays opponents who are taller than 6'4" on a grass surface, his career record is 16-6. Though this appears impressive, this win percentage of 73% is well below his career win percentage of 83%. Despite being a small sample size, there is reason to believe that this is not an advantageous matchup for Novak given his opponent's stature.

With the oddsmakers only putting Djokovic at -880 on the money line, there seems to be some implication that the great one is on upset-watch in this third round matchup against the hard hitting Australian. We'll see if the quick grass courts of Wimbledon can help Popyrin hold on his service games and drag the 37-year-old into a fourth or fifth set.

Popyrin

Popyrin has had an impressive last 12 months, rising from the 93rd-ranked player to the 47th-ranked player in the world since his first round Wimbledon loss in 2023. This match marks his first third round appearance at Wimbledon in his career. He has gotten to the third round in a major 5 other times, yet he has fallen short every single time. As he looks down the barrel at one of greatest grass court players the game has ever seen, he will need to pull off a miraculous upset to avoid falling to 0-6 in the third round of grand slams.

Popyrin is no stranger to top competition. In his career, he holds an impressive 4-5 record against top-20 opponents in best-of-5 matches. His most recent such match coming back in January against none other than Novak himself, where he broke at 4-5 to steal the second set from the top seed and nearly took the third set in a tiebreaker. Some of Popyrin's most impressive career wins include Fritz at the 2023 AO, Dimitrov at the 2021 US Open, and Thiem at the 2019 AO.

Though his career grass-court record of 21-20 is nothing to write home about, he seems to have found some form on the soft surface in 2024 with a 5-2 record so far. It's also worth noting that his two losses against Andy Murray and Tommy Paul both went into a decisive 3rd set, showing his ability to take sets off of tough opponents. His serve has been clocked as fast as 153mph during match-play, and the quick courts of Wimbledon should make his serve all the more dangerous against the greatest returner of all time.

Popyrin is coming off of a 5-setter against Tomas Etcheverry in the second round, yet his fatigue does not really concern me given his experience in 5-set matches. He will surely be eager for his second career matchup against the 24-time grand slam winner. Look for the Aussie to make Novak have to earn his way into the fourth round of his 2024 Wimbledon campaign.

Djokovic vs Popyrin

Prediction

It is hard for me to see Novak being able to cruise his way through this third round matchup. Just over a month ago we saw him down 2-sets to 1 and down a break in the fourth to Lorenzo Musetti in the third round of Roland Garros. What came shortly after was a brilliant display of why most people consider him to be the greatest of all time, yet from a betting perspective the over and underdog spread both hit with ease.

In tennis betting, when you have a heavy favorite to win a match, the under is typically a good way to bet that the favorite gets the job done with ease. On the contrary, if you are not so sure that the better player will take care of business, then an over on total games or total sets may be a better way to go.

Given the breakdown I've provided on the two players, I have confidence in Popyrin to take a set off of the great Djokovic. Popyrin's career tiebreak record on grass sits an an impressive 15-9, something that could very well come into play on Saturday afternoon. He was able to break Djokovic twice in their matchup at the Australian open earlier this year and hit 52 winners on him as well. If we can get a similar form out of Alexei tomorrow, then he should be able to test Novak and bring him into the later sets of the match.

The reason I don't love the over of 36.5 total games or Popyrin's spread of +5.5 games is because of Djokovic's ability to bounce back after a bad set with a score of 6-1 or 6-0. A set with a score that lopsided could erase any progress Popyrin makes in covering his spread or extending the match towards the over. A total that high has a very low chance of going over in just three sets, as you would need a 7-6 7-5 7-5 score line at the bare minimum. There is almost a higher chance of the match going under in four sets than going over in three, which is why I prefer to take a bet on both players winning a set.

If this bet misses because Popyrin wins in 3 sets, then I will take that loss with grace. However, the much more likely outcome is Djokovic winning in 4 or 5 sets. I just don't think that Popyrin is a player that Novak can beat in straight sets at this point in his career. Don't get me wrong, Novak is still one of the best players in the world right now, however Popyrin has the weapons to make him have to fight his way through to the fourth round of Wimbledon this year.

Pick: Both players to win a set: Yes -122 (FanDuel)

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