Djokovic vs Alcaraz Odds
| Djokovic Odds | -195 |
| Alcaraz Odds | +160 |
| Over/Under | 40.5 (-120 / +100) |
| Time | How to Watch | Sunday, 9 a.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds via DraftKings. For tips on how to watch Wimbledon, click here. | |
Just a month on from their semifinal matchup at the French Open, the two best men's tennis players in the world — Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz — will clash for a Wimbledon title.
Djokovic has been unbeatable in Grand Slam matches this year, as he's already won the Australian Open and French Open. The 23-time Slam champion would come to New York a tournament away from the elusive Calendar Grand Slam if he can defeat Alcaraz.
For Alcaraz, it's all about overcoming the tightness he experienced in their French Open match. At the beginning of the third set, the 20-year-old began to experience full body cramps, ending his chances of winning the match or the tournament.
Read on to see how our betting experts are handicapping the Wimbledon final between Djokovic and Alcaraz.
Djokovic vs Alcaraz Picks
Carmine Carcieri: I’m going to take a unique approach to this Wimbledon final by betting Novak Djokovic to win the match and both players to win a set at +130.
I just don’t see Djokovic losing in this final; he’s won 34 straight at Wimbledon and 27 consecutive in majors.
The Serbian has been nearly untouchable on serve in the last two weeks, getting broken just three times in the entire tournament. He also had two matches earlier in the event where he didn’t face a break point.
And as if he needed any more motivation, Djokovic would tie Margaret Court for the most majors in tennis history (24) with a win.
He’s locked in and was even chirping at a heckler during his semifinal match against Jannik Sinner. That’s not a Djokovic that’s going to flirt with a loss.
Plus, Djokovic just beat Alcaraz in the semifinals of the French Open in four sets. At this point in his career, Alcaraz is more comfortable and experienced on clay, and even in that match, Djokovic looked a step ahead of the 20-year-old.
But there’s no way I can discount Alcaraz. Djokovic’s level of play has overshadowed the youngster, but the Spaniard is in peak form himself.
Alcaraz has lost just two sets in the tournament, and his straight-set victories over Holger Rune and Daniil Medvedev prove that he’s come a long way on this surface in just a year.
Even though I don’t expect Alcaraz to win, his competitiveness, mental toughness and court coverage should allow him to sneak a set off of Djokovic along the way. I just don't think he serves well enough to pull out a victory or take this match to five.
Pick: Djokovic to win and both players win a set (+130 via FanDuel)
Luke Holmberg: Djokovic's grass prowess is undeniable, yet Alcaraz’s recent grass adaptation — resulting in fluid movement, ultra-aggressive play and a ruthlessly varied game — creates challenges for Djokovic.
This matchup on grass is much better for Alcaraz from a tactical perspective. He should be able to dictate more with his power and variety. Alcaraz has the ability to unsettle Djokovic, forcing the Serb to recalibrate constantly. His energy coupled with lessons learned about dealing with tension from their last match will make him a daunting opponent.
Will Djokovic adapt masterfully as he usually does? Possibly. However, Alcaraz's momentum is tough to ignore. I'm wagering 1 unit on Alcaraz +1.5 sets and adding to that with 0.5 units on the Alcaraz moneyline.
Picks: Alcaraz +1.5 sets (-130 via DraftKings) | 0.5u Alcaraz ML (+160 via DraftKings)
Kenny Ducey: It’s been over 2,000 days since Djokovic has last lost on Centre Court at Wimbledon, so even if this match feels like a passing of the torch moment it surely won’t be that straightforward.
Alcaraz looks the part of a Wimbledon champion. He’s been able to fly around the court and hit through his opponents with a colossal forehand. His velvety-smooth feel has made him a nightmare for opponents. It’s fair to say at this point that Alcaraz is just as dangerous on a grass court as he is on a hard court or clay.
I do think that Alcaraz, who was a favorite over Djokovic at the French Open, is mis-priced here. There should be no skepticism remaining over his ability on this surface, which I think the line reflects. His nerves could certainly come into play as they did in Paris, but that’s not where my focus is here.
I like Alcaraz to cover the spread but I’m not sure he will win. His serve has let him down at times here at The Championships and he’s dropped sets to Matteo Berrettini and Nicolas Jarry. It’s easy to think after his domination of Daniil Medvedev that he’s unbeatable, but the greatest returner of all time will surely find a way through the service game of Alcaraz.
Some props on Djokovic to win and the over to cash are certainly in play, but I want to play it a bit safer given Alcaraz could blow by Djokovic if his nerves are settled.
Pick: Alcaraz +3.5 games (-115 via DraftKings)
