Djokovic vs Kopriva Odds, Djokovic – Kopriva Picks
| Djokovic Odds | -7000 |
| Kopriva Odds | +2000 |
| Over/Under | 28.5 (-115 / -115) |
| Date | Tuesday, 7/2 |
| Time | 9:45 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN |
| Odds as of Monday afternoon via DraftKings | |
The great Novak Djokovic returns to the court for the first time since his sudden withdrawal from Roland Garros less than one month ago due to a torn medial meniscus in his right knee. Djokovic received surgery to repair the damaged knee and has recovered in time to compete for his eighth Wimbledon title, looking to tie Rodger Federer for the most of all time.
Djokovic has yet to win a title in 2024, something he is not used to saying by the time July rolls around. He opens his desired title run against Czechia's Vit Kopriva. Let's look into how you can find value on this lopsided first round matchup.
Here is my Djokovic vs Kopriva preview.
Djokovic
Djokovic sits at an impressive 18-0 record in his career for first round matches at Wimbledon. Seven times in his career he has hoisted the trophy at this prestigious tournament, but being one win behind Rodger Federer is surely something that is in the back of Djokovic's mind as he prepares to chase the hardware in 2024.
He has started slow for his standards in both of his first round matchups this season in Grand Slams. He dropped a set to Dino Prizmic in the first round of the Australian Open, then last month in Paris had three close sets with wildcard Pierre-Hugues Herbert, winning 6-4 7-6(3) 6-4. Both of these results led to the underdog's game spread hitting, as well as the over for total games in the match.
Kopriva sits at a current rank of 123rd in the world. Since 2020, Djokovic has played four Wimbledon matches against players ranked outside of the top 100. Despite winning these four matches, his performance was not as dominant as one may expect. Three out of four of those matches went over the 28.5 games line that we see in this matchup, with the one exception falling just two games shy at 27.
In Djokovic's 10 Grand Slam matches so far in 2024, 8-of-10 have finished over 31 total games, with many of them stretching four or five sets. This is much different from the early tournament cruising we have seen from Djokovic in much of his career. He is clearly a step slower this year, and coming off of knee surgery will not make it any easier for him to get through these matches, regardless of the rank of his opponent.
Kopriva
Kopriva is a 27-year old from Czechia looking to make a name for himself in his first Wimbledon match of his career. Kopriva has spent much of his career in the Challenger circuit, but he is a solid player.
Kopriva's best career win came back in 2021 against 10th-ranked Denis Shapovalov in Gstaad on clay. He also found an impressive win against 74th-ranked Federico Coria at the Rome Masters in May of this year. Though both of these wins came on clay, they show his ability to compete with higher ranked opponents.
The only other Grand Slam match of his career came earlier this season in the first round of the 2024 Australian Open. He played against 2023 quarterfinalist Sebastian Korda and brought the 26th-ranked player in the world to a fifth set before falling just short of a miraculous upset. It was another impressive display of Kopriva's ability to battle against top ranked players.
Kopriva has very little experience on grass, only having played six professional grass matches in his career. His grass record of 4-2 is largely thanks to the three match win streak he went on last week which led to his qualification for this first round matchup against Djokovic. He seems to have adjusted well to the new surface, and his quickness and athleticism that he typically uses on clay translates well to the soft courts of Wimbledon.
Djokovic vs Kopriva
Prediction
As we look back at Djokovic's 2024 campaign, this is the longest he's gone without a title in the calendar year throughout his entire career. The most accomplished tennis player of all time has not found his groove yet this season, and as father time creeps in, his body is starting to pay the price. He will be wearing a compression sleeve on his right knee throughout this tournament, and tennis fans everywhere are curious to see how this injury he suffered less than a month ago will affect his play.
I would be surprised to see Djokovic lose this match outright – that's a given. As he chases Federer's record of eight Wimbledon titles, his base level and unrelenting mentality will guide him to victory, despite the level of play his opponent may rise to. The betting value in this match comes from the duration it will take Djokovic to eventually come out on top.
The total of 28.5 is something that the majority of Djokovic's opponents in Grand Slam matches this season have caused to go over. If Kopriva is able to force a tiebreaker in one of the sets, or if he can use his hot streak to steal a set from Djokovic, then this total should have no trouble going over.
With Djokovic this season, it's been hard to say what you're going to get with each match. The dominance we have seen over the past two decades simply isn't there anymore. With the level of play we've seen so far, and coming off of meniscus surgery less than a month ago, betting on the underdog to give the great one a challenge is the side the smart money should be on.
Pick: Over 28.5 games (-115 via FanDuel)
