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Novak Djokovic vs. Yoshihito Nishioka Odds
| Djokovic Odds | -10000 |
| Nishioka Odds | +2400 |
| Over/Under | 26.5 (-120/-135) |
| Time | 2:45 p.m. ET |
| Odds via FanDuel. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here. | |
This first round French Open match is an uphill battle for the 94th-ranked Yoshihito Nishioka against the all-time great Novak Djokovic.
The world No. 1 is coming off of a semifinal appearance in Madrid and a title in Rome, while Nishioka enters off of four consecutive losses.
Djokovic will surely be a difficult test for Nishioka, now let's get into the match.
Nishioka Struggles to Gain Ground Against Top Opponents
In Nishioka's 10-year career, he has played 11 matches against top-10 opponents. Of those 11 matches, he has lost 10 of them, with the one win coming against fellow Japanese player Kei Nishikori back in 2019.
The tale of the tape comes within the losses however, as he won just one set across all 10 matches.
In his career, Nishioka is 10-18 in ATP main draws on clay. He has a 1589 Elo on clay, compared to his much more solid 1724 Elo on hard.
This will be Nishioka's third matchup against Djokovic in his career. In his two prior times facing him, he failed to surpass three games won in the five sets they've played against each other.
Both of these prior matchups against Djokovic occurred on hard surfaces, a place Nishioka is much more comfortable on. On a clay surface that will slow the ball down, Djokovic will be at an even greater advantage than he already is.
If Djokovic can hold Nishioka under three games in all five of their previous sets on a hard surface, then it may be scary to see what he does to him on the clay.
Djokovic Has Advantages Across the Board
Djokovic has always been great on the clay. The slower ball bounces help him control the point and mitigate any threat his opponent may put on him, even if his movement is worsened.
His clay Elo Rating of 2021.1 is currently third-best in the world. This is more than a 400-point difference from the clay Elo of his opponent Nishioka.
Throughout Djokovic's career, lefties have struggled to win points against his serve.
Djokovic boasts a 73.9% first serve win rate against lefties from the deuce side and a 71.5% first serve win rate on the ad side.
If it difficult to see Nishioka breaking Djokovic's serve a single time throughout the course of this match. The Serbian will have an edge in rallies off of both wings and Djokovic's spot-serving has been solid in recent weeks.
Betting Value
Finding betting value for a -10000 favorite is no easy task.
The spread of -10.5 games calls for a near perfect outing from Djokovic, but fading that with Nishioka +10.5 is just asking for mounds of frustration.
The total on this match is at 26.5, which is one of the lowest I've ever seen in a best-of-five set match.
That's why I dug a little deeper to find what I see as the best value on the board.
Nishioka u8.5 games won throughout the match should be a very doable task for Djokovic.
In the previous best-of-five-set matchup between these two players, Nishioka amassed seven total games across the three sets that occurred. That match was played on a surface that Nishioka is much more comfortable on.
I find it difficult to see him besting this previous performance given the change of surface and added experience Djokovic now has against Nishioka's playing style.
Pick: Nishioka u8.5 games (-132 via FanDuel)
