Round 3 of the US Open is here and we are starting to see some seed vs. seed matchups.
Although upsets have sent the draw into a frenzy, plenty of blockbuster matches are set to play out on Friday.
Let's dive in to where we can find value between some big names.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing US Open matches.
Pablo Carreno Busta (-128) vs. Alex de Minaur (+106)
5 p.m. ET
The 12-seed Pablo Carreno Busta will face off against the 18-seed Alex de Minaur.
Carreno Busta arrives here with relative ease, having dropped just one set in each of his first two rounds – against dangerous opponents. Likewise, de Minaur has had no issue arriving here, with just one set dropped.
Both players are tremendous baseliners. Carreno Busta has taken his game to the next level over the past month, winning Montreal and handling high quality opponents with little trouble.
His baseline game has been impeccable. Carreno Busta has found a deadly combination of speed, depth, consistency and placement that has sent players like Matteo Berrettini, Jannik Sinner, and Dominic Thiem quickly packing.
Alex de Minaur may be the fastest player on tour. Using his speed to make his opponent hit the extra shot and aim for narrow margins, he finds ways to draw out errors from them. He can flip defense into offense on seemingly any ball and has the ability to generate pace and quickly get to the net to close out a point.
The Australian's tactics work best against opponents who may struggle with consistent point construction or closing out points. This is not Carreno Busta. The Spaniard should have no problem playing the extra ball and he has shown us that he can progressively tack on aggression with each shot in a rally.
I trust Carreno Busta to find ways through the defense of de Minaur with few struggles.
Pick: Carreno Busta ML (-128 via FanDuel)
Jack Draper (-144) vs. Karen Khachanov (+118)
1:45 p.m. ET
If you were not already sold on Jack Draper, his performance against Felix Auger-Aliassime surely did the job. Dispatching of the world No. 8 in straight sets was an impressive feat.
Led by his powerful lefty game, Draper has out-hit highly ranked opponents. The speed and angles he can produce off both wings are a scary sight to see for anyone on the opposing side of the net. He closes points well, can flip defensive shots into offensive play and stays cool under pressure.
Karen Khachanov got through clay-courter Thiago Monteiro in four sets. He's year so far, with a 28-20 record, so the Russian would love a deep run here at the US Open. However, he is yet to make the fourth round in New York and he is faced with a tough test to do so this year.
The one knock I have on Draper's game is his fitness. There have been times where he seems to run out of gas and his level of play drops. But, having come through both of his matches in straight sets, it is much less likely to be a worry.
I will once again ride the Brit and trust his hot-hand. He can hit through anybody and loves playing on the big stage.
Draper has value in backing up his win over Auger-Aliassime.
Pick: Draper ML (-144 via FanDuel)
