Rafa Nadal vs. Marcos Giron Australian Open Odds and Betting Analysis (Jan. 16)

Rafa Nadal vs. Marcos Giron

The quest for a second Australian Open title for the 20-time slam champion Rafa Nadal begins with a battle against the feisty American, Marcos Giron.

While Nadal comes into the match as a gargantuan favorite, Giron is a very capable hard court player that has a 4-2 tour record against lefties in the last 52 weeks. Giron has also competed well at the Australian Open before, taking Alexander Zverev to four sets in 2021.

Nadal's preparation for this event included playing the Melbourne Summer Set tournament, which he won without dropping a set in three matches (his quarterfinal opponent, Tallon Griekspoor, withdrew due to a foot injury). Outside of that event, Nadal has been at the site of the tournament for training.

The Spaniard has been one of the most successful players to grace the sport, but he's struggled in Australia, where he's reached four finals since 2010, but hasn't been able to convert — though he has come very close — and there's no doubt that changing that is high on Nadal's priority list for the conclusion of his career.

Giron played events in Melbourne and Syndey prior to the Australian Open, but he wasn't able to pick up a win in two singles matches. The world number 66 did close out his year with four wins at the Paris Masters, including upset victories over Frances Tiafoe and Diego Schwartzman.

He's facing one of the biggest tasks in his entire career, but does he have any chance of mounting a fight?

Betting Value

In a situation like this, deriving legitimate value isn't an easy task. Given the way that Giron plays — with lots of counter-striking and giving up space on the court — he thrives when his opponents aren't consistent on the ground. That isn't to say that Giron can't pick up the pace and be aggressive at times, but against Nadal that will be incredibly hard.

Historically, absorbing pace isn't the most difficult task for Nadal, but pressuring him is far more effective than sitting back and begging for a mistake. There's no clear path for Giron to find success, but he's also solid enough on the ground to pick up on a dip in form from Nadal, if it comes.

As such, both the set line of -2.5 at (-150/+120) and the total of 30.5 seem appropriate. A better idea would be to see how locked in Nadal is at the start of the match. If he's failing to assert himself in the early stages, it may be wise to take Giron to win a set. If Nadal is firing early, it's going to be tough for Giron to find any traction, so the vice versa could be ideal if you can get a reasonable price.

Most notably, it will be useful to gather observations and data on Nadal in this match, as it could serve bettors well for future stages of the tournament.