Rafael Nadal vs. Lorenzo Sonego Wimbledon Odds, Pick, Prediction (July 2)

Nadal vs. Sonego Odds

Rafael Nadal will face Lorenzo Sonego as he looks to continue making his way through a now porous draw at Wimbledon.

When the draws were made, Nadal was set to play Marin Cilic, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Matteo Berrettini all before the final. But between COVID and an upset, he will not face any of that stiff competition.

Instead, he finds himself against Lorenzo Sonego in this third round.

Nadal has been up-and-down so far at Wimbledon, but will Sonego be able to expose that as much or further than Francisco Cerundolo and Ricardas Berankis have?

Let's dig into it.

Sonego A Quiet Grass Court Danger

Many of Sonego's achievements have come on the clay courts, but he is quite dangerous on grass.

Possessing a variety of weapons, Sonego has found ways to consistently hit through opponents on this fast surface.

In 2019, Sonego took home his maiden ATP title on a grass court in Antalya. Since then he has made another final in Eastbourne and reached the fourth round at Wimbledon before falling to Roger Federer.

After finding revenge against grass court specialist Denis Kudla and producing a straight sets victory against the ever-tricky Hugo Gaston, Sonego will look to produce magic on the big stage, likewise to when he handed Djokovic his only non-defaulted loss to a player ranked outside the top 10 in 2020.

Sonego has the weapons, the talent and the ceiling to trouble the best of players in huge moments, but can he do it against Nadal?

Nadal Shaky At Best Thus Far

Nadal has had to work extremely hard in the first two rounds of Wimbledon. With his groundstrokes lacking depth, his opponents have been able to attack relentlessly. His previous opponents – Cerundolo and Berankis – should not have caused Nadal the trouble that they did.

The Spaniard opted to not play any warmup grass court tournaments and instead competed in two matches at the Hurlingham Classic. Being an exhibition match, the game play is much different.

We could say Nadal's iffy performances are his warmup matches in a sense, but either way, the extended time on court should actually benefit him in terms of comfort, training his foot and consistency.

Betting Value

This match is rather interesting from a betting perspective.

If Nadal is able to play like we know he can, Sonego will be no match whatsoever. However, if Nadal's groundstrokes are landing as short as his previous two rounds, Sonego will be able to take advantage of that even better than Cerundolo or Berankis could.

With two matches now under his belt and his grass-court style likely coming back to him after a couple years off of the surface, Nadal should be ready to go.

Interestingly enough, Nadal has produced a better record in the third round of Wimbledon compared to the second. This is almost surely because he has found his rhythm and locked in his game plan a few days into the tournament.

With a 9-1 record in the third round, and his only loss coming in 2003 at just 17-years old in his first Wimbledon outing, Nadal will send Sonego back away from the grass courts this year.

I believe Nadal will be on top of his game and Sonego will be unable to trouble the Spaniard much at all.

Trust Nadal to quickly depart into the fourth round of Wimbledon and continue making his way through his bettered half of the draw.

Pick: Nadal 3-0 Sets (+120 via FanDuel)