Roland Garros Betting Picks | Fritz vs Lajovic, Kokkinakis vs Zeppieri (May 30)

Roland Garros Betting Picks | Fritz vs Lajovic, Kokkinakis vs Zeppieri (May 30) article feature image
Credit:

Cameron Spencer/Getty. Pictured: Taylor Fritz.

We will be in for a long, glorious day of tennis on Thursday at Roland Garros after rain on Wednesday pushed some second-round encounters back a day.

On a loaded slate, it's a little easier to spot the lines with glaring value, and I'll be looking to a grizzled underdog to make a mark on his match against a top player while I back an under-appreciated short favorite.

Here are my Roland Garros betting picks for Fritz vs Lajovic and Kokkinakis vs Zeppieri.

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Roland Garros Betting Picks

Taylor Fritz (-450) vs Dusan Lajovic (+350)

8 a.m. ET

I feel dirty here, because I've been the biggest cheerleader for "Claylor Fritz" over the past two seasons. He's made a ton of great strides on the clay, and this year he took another step forward with deep runs in Madrid and Rome leading up to Roland Garros.

Well, I think this match is going to be a little tricky for Fritz. He's historically struggled at the Grand Slam level, and the French Open has easily been the hardest on him with no fourth-round appearances in seven tries. He's been better on clay over the past two years, but he's still lost 11 total matches, and this one could a very hard one for him to get through.

Dusan Lajovic has fully embraced being a clay specialist over the last three years, playing nearly 90 matches on the surface and coming through with a winning record in each season. Though his history at Roland Garros in those campaigns is even worse than Fritz, he's built up a head of steam coming into this one with a trip to the semis in Barcelona weeks ago that took him past the likes of Diego Schwartzman, Ugo Humbert, Alejandro Davidovich-Fokina and Arthur Fils before he took a set off of possibly the best clay player in the world, Stefanos Tsitsipas.

We know when Lajovic is on, he's a very live underdog on clay, and it would appear he's playing some of his best tennis after an impressive first-round win over Roman Safiullin. I think he'll keep his level high for this one and give Fritz the same kind of push that Federico Coria did last round, though in this case I don't think he'll fade away after potentially taking a set here.

Pick: Lajovic +6.5 games (-116)

Thanasi Kokkinakis (-135) vs Giulio Zeppieri (+110)

8 a.m. ET

I'm just not understanding what's happening with this line. Kokkinakis played a five-set match in the first round, so yes — he's going to be the slightest bit tired here, but that doesn't explain the amount of money pouring in on Zeppieri.

The 22-year-old Italian is a fine player, and nothing more. He's gone 7-7 on clay across all levels, which includes three wins in qualifying here in Paris and a win over Adrian Mannarino which saw him drop a set to possibly the worst clay-court player in the top 100. I'm just not seeing anything to inspire confidence he can win a match over a player who is decidedly better at tennis, even on a surface that isn't favorable to him.

Kokkinakis built up some form leading into Roland Garros with a title on the ATP Challenger Tour and entered into a whopping seven draws, and I do think he's poised to come away with a couple of wins over the course of this tournament. He can find lines and angles that Zeppieri can't, and I expect he will be able to hit through the Italian to come away with a rather convincing win and prove the oddsmakers (and bettors) wrong here.

Pick: Kokkinakis ML (-135)

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About the Author
Kenny is a former member of the Baseball Writers Association of America and editor for Baseball Prospectus, and covered baseball, basketball and football for Sports Illustrated. He also specializes in tennis betting and DFS, and is a long-suffering Jets fan.

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