Another preview from the early action in the women's draw features another split of one favorite and one underdog to back on Saturday from Roland Garros!
Here are my picks for Elena Rybakina vs Elise Mertens and Jasmine Paolini vs Bianca Andreescu in my Saturday French Open predictions for June 1.
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Saturday French Open Predictions
Elena Rybakina (-500) vs Elise Mertens (+390)
6 a.m. ET
Talk about two women on divergent career paths right now. Formerly an all-court player that was a staple in late stages of bigger tournaments (to be fair to her, she's into the third round), Mertens has fallen out of the top 25 in the women's rankings and without a surprise win here, she would be 32nd in the live rankings. That would put her dangerously close to not being a seed in a few weeks time at Wimbledon.
One can see why as well. Other than a final at the 250 in Hobart (one of the weakest women's events in the lead up to the Australian Open), she's been really poor this year, reaching just one quarterfinal since then.
Even her path to this point has been rocky. A one break of serve win against Maria Lourdes Carle (an underpowered grinder whose success is primarily at lower levels and smaller WTA events) and victory against Petra Martic (now just 4-11 in her last 15 professional matches) do not inspire much confidence.
Rybakina, on the other hand, has shot to the top of the sport and with a gulf between the pack comprised of her, Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff and the rest of the tour, she's really looked fine across surfaces. In another era, I'm not sure we'd see her do much on the clay, but she's looked fine to this point.
The power mismatch here is overwhelmingly in the Kazakh's favor and the series between these two has become very one sided in recent times. I'm not the biggest head-to-head handicapper, but when the career trajectories and stylistic matchup back it up, I'll give it more credence than usual.
Pick: Under 20.5 games (-120 via DraftKings) | Rybakina -5.5 games (+115 via BetRivers)
Jasmine Paolini (-210) vs Bianca Andreescu (+172)
6:30 a.m. ET
Am I really doing this again? My first thought when I locked in my bet on Andreescu. I'm not going as large here as I did against Kalinskaya, as the price is cheaper, but the opponent is much better and I'm not in the mood for another large wager sweat with the Canadian.
Here's the thing though, I still believe there's an undervaluation on Andreescu, who is still just getting back to playing and an overvaluation on Paolini. I wrote up why I thought she was absurdly priced in her last match and she very well needed three sets against American Hailey Baptiste as a monster favorite. She led 5-1 in the second set, but when Baptiste's game started clicking, she stormed back and had four set points on serve to prolong that clash.
Andreescu is another all-courter who does a lot of things well, but at this stage she is probably more talented than Baptiste and far more reliable and established on the tour. Paolini's forehand is excellent, but when she's forced to generate pace on her own, it becomes very boom-or-bust. I don't think her serve is strong enough to find a slew of cheap points on a slow surface against someone like Andreescu either (though if he returns from where she did against Kalinskaya last round, she won't do herself many favors), and that leads me to believe that more often than not, Andreescu should be able to find a few breaks of serve that at least allow her to keep things close.
Finally, the former US Open champion may have started really slowly against Kalinskaya, but she was the better player for the majority of the second and third sets when push came to shove. Not to mention, Paolini doesn't play that flatter hitting style where the ball gets on you much more quickly than it appears. It was pretty obvious that Andreescu was having timing issues early on in the second round. I'd be surprised to see that again from her this time out.
Pick: Andreescu ML (+172 via FanDuel)
