Rafael Nadal faces Richard Gasquet for the 18th time in his career and Carlos Alcaraz takes on a thriving American on Saturday at the US Open, but I’m targeting two other matches for my best bets.
I’ll start with a competitive day-session duel between Denis Shapovalov and Andrey Rublev before transitioning to a night-session affair between Brandon Nakashima and Jannik Sinner.
Let's get into it.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing US Open matches.
Andrey Rublev (-190) vs. Denis Shapovalov (+155)
1 p.m. ET
This will arguably be the most competitive and intriguing matchup of the day, as the No. 19 seed Shapovalov looks to upset the No. 9 seed Rublev to reach his third Round of 16 at the US Open.
That means one thing: I’ll be targeting the over.
It’s well known that the Canadian’s focus can fluctuate throughout a match — and that’s putting it nicely — but he’s very fond of New York and the US Open, making runs at the event in 2020 and 2017.
So far this year, Shapovalov edged Marc-Andrea Huesler in five sets in his first-round match and dispatched Roberto Carballes Baena in four sets in Round 2.
His unforced errors were an issue against Carballes Baena and his second-serve was off in both matches, but his history against Rublev and overall talent give him a shot to keep this close — and possibly win.
Shapovalov has faced Rublev four times (2-2), with their most recent meeting (2020 in Russia) finishing as a close three-setter. Even the two matches that were decided in straight sets were even closer than the score line indicated.
As far as Rublev, the Russian didn’t play in Wimbledon, but he’s had a tendency to play tight matches at Grand Slams this year. In his nine matches finished at majors, six of those went over their respective totals, including a five-set victory versus Laslo Djere in Round 1 of the US Open.
Rublev cruised in his last match against Soonwoo Kwon, but this is an entirely different task, as his counterpunching, aggressive style will have to battle with the pace of Shapovalov’s forehand and one-handed backhand.
While I’m not comfortable taking a side in this match, I am definitely betting the over in a duel that will finish either in a close four sets or in five.
Pick: Over 38.5 (-115 via DraftKings) | Play to -125
Jannik Sinner (-285) vs. Brandon Nakashima (+225)
8:15 p.m. ET
With Novak Djokovic unable to play and Nadal looking beatable, young stars like Sinner should see an opening to win their first-ever major.
But first, the 21-year-old Italian must get through a rising American, Nakashima, on Louis Armstrong.
Sinner played a five-set match in the opening round against Daniel Altmaier, but he righted the ship in Round 2, cruising past qualifier Christopher Eubanks in three sets.
He has succeeded immensely on hard courts in his career, with five total titles and an Elo Ranking of 5 on the surface. And while he’s won a majority of those trophies on indoor hard courts, he also captured the title in D.C. — one of the fastest courts on the tour — last year.
While he hasn’t played a ton of tennis this summer, Sinner has been a consistent force this year at 38-11 overall.
On the other side, Nakashima looked superb in the second round against Grigor Dimitrov, and he hasn’t dropped a single set in this tournament. He didn’t get broken once in the match against Dimitrov and his baseline game was untouchable.
While he will have the crowd behind him during the night session, I’m going to back Sinner on the spread.
Sinner has never faced Nakashima in his career, but his game matches up nicely due to the fact that he won’t be afraid to rally with the American. He can match his groundstrokes and baseline attack, and a seventh-best Return Rating on the ATP Tour will give him many more chances to break than Dimitrov had.
With that in mind, I’m going with Sinner -4.5. Play it no higher than -120.
Pick: Jannik Sinner -4.5 games (-120 via DraftKings)
