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Tsitsipas vs. Rune Odds
| Tsitsipas Odds | -455 |
| Rune Odds | +340 |
| Over/Under | 34.5 |
| Time | 7:15 a.m. ET |
| Odds via DraftKings. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here. | |
Stefanos Tsitsipas will battle Holger Rune for a spot in the quarterfinals of the French Open.
This is the match of the fourth round on the men's side. Now, that is just one writer's opinion, but this one – at least early on – has the potential to be a "popcorn match."
Having come through the first two rounds looking shakier than normal in the early stages of the French Open, Tsitsipas found his rhythm in the third round against someone that couldn't hang with him and dispatched Mikael Ymer in straightforward fashion.
His opponent, the supremely talented Rune, has been incredible through three matches. It could be argued this is the best he's looked at a tournament in his career. Even more so than his title run in Munich at the end of April.
Let's dig a bit more into these two players' games and how to approach betting this match.
Tsitsipas Getting The Job Done
It's tough to say Tsitispas has really impressed to this point in the first week, but he's gotten the job done, despite being two sets down to Musetti and nearly pushed to five sets by someone he had no business being in a competitive match with.
If the third round is any indication, however, Tsitsipas is rounding into form at the right time.
His serve and forehand have not been in question this tournament, even in the nervier matches early on. His return of serve, though, has always been a question, and until he learns how to hit that one-handed block return on his backhand wing, it will remain a weak spot.
Conserving energy in that third round could come in handy for the Greek, as Rune has had red flags pop up regarding his fitness his whole career. Even in his last match after certain points, he'd walk gingerly and had the trainer out after the second set. The match was ultimately under two hours long.
Rune Having Tournament Of His Life
As a product of the Mouratoglou Academy, Rune was on the tennis community's radar very early. Those who watch the sport avidly have known about him and his prowess on clay for several years now. This is despite the Dane being just 19-years old.
His court coverage, consistency and precision from the baseline with his groundstrokes have always been the backbone of his game.
Now, however, he's turned into an all-around threat. His first and second serves are frighteningly good.
He's averaging five double faults per match, but considering the weight, pace and placement of so many of his second serves throughout the tournament, the reward is far greater than the risk.
His groundstrokes remain incredibly accurate, despite him hitting with far more pace.
Against the diminutive Frenchman, Hugo Gaston – known for his ball retrieval abilities – Rune was able to steal time by hammering groundstrokes into the back corners of the court, forcing even the pesky defender to leave the returns short.
Betting Value
Taking all this into account, what is the best way to approach betting the match?
If you are able to find certain derivative markets, things like first set over games, Rune first set moneyline, Tsitsipas to win paired with over games all seem like intriguing bets.
Keep in mind, this could be a very serve-oriented affair. Despite the ability and athleticism of both players, they both possess big serves and Rune's hold rate throughout tournament has exceeded 90%. Match that up with a less-than-stellar returner in Tsitsipas and overs look like solid positions to take.
Markets to avoid include things like Rune outright or Rune on the spread. This is simply because Rune could split the first two sets and hit a wall. The best way to take a position that he keeps things close? Over 3.5 sets or +2.5 sets.
With Rune to win a set actually a better price than requiring both to win a set at over 3.5, the +2.5 sets play for the youngster is the way to attack the match.
Pick: Rune +2.5 sets (-125 via DraftKings)
