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Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Lorenzo Musetti Odds
| Tsitsipas Odds | -1200 |
| Musetti Odds | +700 |
| Total | 30.5 (-120/+100) |
| Time | 2:45 p.m. ET |
| Odds via DraftKings. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here. | |
Stefanos Tsitsipas was the winner of Thursday's draw, getting placed seemingly all alone in the bottom half of the bracket.
Now, the pressure is squarely on his shoulders to win the matches ahead of him that he's expected to win.
The first of which could be one of his toughest against young Italian Lorenzo Musetti. So, where does the value lie?
Allow me to break this one down.
Tsitsipas Back to Stable Situation
Tsitsipas made the final here at Roland Garros, where he infamously fumbled away a 2-0 lead over Novak Djokovic and failed to win his maiden Grand Slam.
He'll be out for revenge this year, and based on his projected path to the final he just may get it.
The Greek has been one of the more fascinating players on tour this season. He's won more matches than anyone, but that doesn't mean he's been the best in the world at any point or remotely close.
In fact, he hasn't even had an easy time beating some of the worst players around.
Tsitsipas went on a seven-match losing streak against the spread earlier this season, when he dropped a set to qualifier Jiri Lehecka in Rotterdam, got steamrolled by Felix Auger-Aliassime in the final and lost to Roman Safiullin in Marseille.
It looked for all the world that Tsitsipas was out of sorts, losing in the second round at Indian Wells to Jenson Brooksby and getting obliterated by Carlos Alcaraz in Miami.
Then, the world No. 4 stepped onto his favorite surface. If you weren't convinced he's a far better player on clay, you're certainly convinced of that now. Tsitsipas went on a tear, defending his Masters 1000 title in Monte Carlo, going to the semifinals in Madrid and reaching the final in Rome against Djokovic.
It seems order has been restored with Tsitsipas, and he's a deserving favorite to come out of Quarter 3.
Musetti Finding Form Ahead of Roland Garros
Tsitsipas falling to Djokovic may be the redemption story people talk about all match long, but the same should really be said for Musetti.
The 20-year-old was absolutely stunning the tennis world a year ago in his Roland Garros debut, making the second week and setting a date with Djokovic.
Musetti didn't let the moment faze him. He raced out to a 2-0 lead by taking two tiebreakers against Djokovic and looked to be primed for the win of his career.
Then, like Tsitsipas, he did fold under the pressure. Musetti only won one game over the next two and a half sets before retiring due to an unseen injury.
In a parallel story to Tsitsipas, the young Italian struggled dearly to find form after that loss up until this clay-court season.
He's gone 10-4 since the ATP Tour moved to the dirt, defeating some pretty tricky opponents like Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Auger-Aliassime, Dan Evans, Sebastian Baez and Sebastian Korda.
If Musetti isn't in his peak 2021 form, he's certainly very close. His forehand has found the mark, and his one-handed backhand down the line is as lethal as ever.
Betting Value
Now, we'll address the fact that both of these men have already faced each other twice. Musetti was overmatched on a hardcourt early last year when he fell 6-1, 6-3 to Tsitsipas in Acapulco.
It should be said, though, fatigue after a marathon match with Grigor Dimitrov certainly played a part in the loss.
The next time they met, it was much more exciting. In Lyon later that year, Musetti took the first set 6-4 before Tsitsipas ran away with it in the next two sets, dropping just three games.
I think with both players looking to be in the same shape they were when they met in Lyon last year, a similar story should unfold.
Musetti is arguably playing better than he did last year — and with more confidence and experience. I'd think he takes a set here or at least takes one to a tiebreaker and helps cash the over.
Pick: Over 30.5 (-120)
