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One day down, 14 to go. With this year being the first that the Australian Open has shifted to a three-day opening round, we still have plenty of first-round action left!
For the second day of action at the Happy Slam, let's break down Maximilian Marterer vs Nuno Borges and Miomir Kecmanovic vs Yosuke Watanuki.
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Sunday Australian Open Predictions
Maximilian Marterer (-112) vs Nuno Borges (-104)
9:15 p.m. ET
This is easily my favorite bet of the opening round. The best argument one can make against the big southpaw in this matchup is that he hasn't played yet in 2024.
Otherwise, the German is the better player in just about every facet of the game. He's got a huge advantage in the service and power department, his lefty game can pin Borges to his backhand wing, where he's more prone to leaving balls short to attack, Marterer moves pretty effectively for a guy his size, and he's far more proficient on quicker courts.
He ended the 2023 playing some strong tennis, which included a win on lightning-fast courts against Borges in straight sets. I'm not the biggest fan of head-to-head being all that relevant in most cases, but when it's on the same surface, with similar speeds and happened recently, it's certainly more reassuring than not.
The Portuguese pro has long been one of the better Challenger Tour guys when he's been down on that circuit, but has had trouble breaking through at Tour level, as he's limited in how much pace he can generate.
This season, I'd make the case that his performances have been even more concerning than Marterer not having played at all. He's 1-2 on the year with five sets lost. Four of those five have been by a score of 0-6 or 2-6. Not great. It's not like he's been playing elite competition either.
Picks: Marterer ML (-112 via FanDuel)| Marterer -1.5 sets (+145 via BetMGM)
Miomir Kecmanovic (-300) vs Yosuke Watanuki (+235)
10:30 p.m. ET
After another good performance against Jack Draper in Adelaide last week (though it resulted in a very close loss), the market is clearly believing in Kecmanovic on quick hard courts heading into the Australian Open. While credit is due for that performance last week and his two-tiebreak victory against the young Brit at the Davis Cup, the hard-court results have been underwhelming to say the least dating back to the summer.
Kecmanovic lost a tight one to Frances Tiafoe, who enjoys quick courts in the first week of this season and last year lost a tight one to the rapidly declining Roberto Bautista Agut, while also losing to Juan Pablo Varillas, Yannick Hanfmann, Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Bu Yunchaokete.
Some of these were close, while the last one was via retirement, but the point is, none of these guys prefer hard courts other than Yunchaokete, who still plays at more of a Challenger Tour level.
Watanuki is no world beater, but his success almost exclusively comes on fast, low-bouncing hard courts. Perfect fit for Melbourne Park.
He has a very strong serve and aggressive plus-one game. His forehand is explosive and flat, taking time away from opposition, and while his return game isn't the strongest, the conditions, courts and the fact that his game is well suited to rack up service holds all lead me to believe this match should be much closer than anticipated.
I'll take him to keep things tight, as well as to win this more often than 30% of the time – which is where the current odds have it.
Pick: Over 38.5 games (-105 via DraftKings) | Watanuki ML (+235 via DraftKings)
