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The fourth round of the French Open begins on Sunday, and with it comes an opportunity to fade two trendy favorites.
Let's get into how to bet on Alcaraz vs Musetti and Ofner vs Tsitsipas on Sunday at Roland Garros.
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Carlos Alcaraz (-575) vs Lorenzo Musetti (+400)
8:30 a.m. ET
If you don't know who Lorenzo Musetti is by now, you should be well-acquainted after Sunday. The Italian is poised to push the World No. 1 as far as he's been pushed all tournament, and he could wind up giving him his best match of the championships.
Musetti was just one of four players to defeat Alcaraz on the clay last season, outlasting him in a three-set epic in Hamburg. In that match he took on the role of the aggressor, probing with his forehand and finishing points with his one-handed backhand down the line. If there's one thing Alcaraz hates, it's aggression, and he did struggle at times against Denis Shapovalov when the Canadian was actually able to find the range on his huge ground strokes.
That match told me a lot about young Alcaraz. The 20-year old experienced a significant drop in level in that third set, falling behind by a break twice, but Shapovalov's bevvy of double faults and unforced errors allowed the Spaniard easy entry back into the match. Musetti has played some extraordinary tennis this week, failing to drop a set despite a tough third round match with Cameron Norrie.
His serving has been trustworthy and I'd anticipate should he find his nose in front during one of the three first sets — something I think is very likely given the fact that Alcaraz has dropped his level in each of his first three matches — he will finish the job and close the set.
Pick: Musetti +2.5 sets (-125 via DraftKings)
Stefanos Tsitsipas (-2000) vs Sebastian Ofner (+1000)
10:30 a.m. ET
It's a marvel that Ofner has reached the fourth round of the French Open despite playing just one top 100 player all year entering Roland Garros, but the fact of the matter is that he's playing some excellent tennis. The big-serving Austrian survived a late push in the fifth set by Fabio Fognini in the third round, serving his way out of trouble and locating his massive forehand to perfection.
The level has been excellent, and given the fact that we've seen Ofner push some good players in the past I have no issues backing him against the Greek God of clay himself, Tsitsipas.
Ofner has now won six straight matches here at Roland Garros when you include qualifying, and for the season is a whopping 30-9 across the Tour and Challenger levels on the clay this year. He's a winning machine right now, and there seems to be no end in sight to his run of brilliance.
I would anticipate that Tsitsipas has enough to get this done inside of five sets — and perhaps even in straights — but I think this is complicated enough where the over is very much in play. Ofner is a tough man to break, and I think he will have a say in a few Tsitsipas service games as well.
The two met on hard courts once back in 2017, and that match went to Tsitsipas 6-7, 6-4, 6-4 in what was a very tight battle. I think this one might be close, too.
Pick: Over 29.5 games (-125 via DraftKings)
