Round four is underway at the US Open and the matches are sure to be thrilling. As the field narrows down to 16 players, every match should be a battle.
With the top half of the draw kicking off the round on Sunday, let's dive in to where we can find value.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing US Open matches.
Matteo Berrettini (-285) vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (+230)
11 a.m. ET
Matteo Berrettini and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina are set to open the day on Louis Armstrong. Two players who boast opposing play styles will be sure to entertain the crowd.
Although Berrettini has dropped only two sets this tournament, he has looked far from convincing. The Italian as usual has looked to dictate points with his huge serve and forehand.
When firing, few can slow him down. But, once Andy Murray, his second round opponent, found himself in a rally, Berrettini leaked errors we do not usually see him make.
His backhand appeared as susceptible as ever and he struggled to close with his forehand at times. Berrettini is short on matches after bowing out of the first round in both Montreal and Cincinnati, and that could provide some reason to his rust.
Davidovich Fokina ended Daniel Elahi Galan's dream run in the third round but not without difficulty. Coming back from a break down to win in four, Davidovich Fokina had to work hard for the victory. He always brings a high level of energy to matches, and that was crucial for him there.
The Spaniard has an excellent return. The bigger serve should not scare him, and his remarkable speed allows him to recover for the next ball. Berrettini leaked errors against Murray, and I expect Daivdovich Fokina to extract them similarly.
He should bring the energy and punish Berrettini when he struggles at times. I think the Spainard will frustrate the big-hitting Italian and keep this match close.
Pick: Davidovich Fokina +4.5 Games (-102 via FanDuel)
Pablo Carreno Busta (-225) vs. Karen Khachanov (+184)
2:15 p.m. ET
Pablo Carreno Busta has been playing ridiculous tennis. During his run in Montreal, he could not miss from the baseline and out rallied world class opponents with ease.
His form has no doubt carried over to the US Open. Most recently, he Alex de Minaur in a baseline battle and he ended the match in ridiculous fashion.
Karen Khachanov looked better than he has in a long time againts Jack Draper. He dropped just two points on serve and he was firing winners with ease.
Then, he returned to earth and Draper bounced back. After Draper claimed the second set and was serving for the third, he was forced to retire with an injury. Khachanov was lucky not to be looking at a 1-2 set deficit and instead got a free pass into the fourth round.
With Carreno Busta playing the tennis he has recently, he is hard to bet against. He has been impenetrable from the baseline and given his run of form, it should continue tomorrow.
Pick: Carreno Busta -3.5 Games (-120 via DraftKings)
