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The fourth round of Wimbledon begins on Sunday with some tantalizing matchups, and I've picked two underdogs who should be giving their opponents a run for their money.
Let's get into how to bet Safiullin vs Shapovalov and Bublik vs Rublev.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing Wimbledon matches.
Sunday Wimbledon Odds & Picks
Andrey Rublev (-125) vs Alexander Bublik (+105)
8:30 a.m. ET
The match between these two in the Halle final was an instant classic. Both men are excellent grass court players with plenty of power, and there's very little between them when they do treat us all by meeting in a tournament.
That's why I'm going to go with a rare play of the over here. While a total in such an even match can often be a sucker bet, it does seem to be warranted here. In their five meetings, the over has cashed four times and the total has pushed once at 21 games. I'm expecting that record to improve to 5-0-1 here.
Rublev is simply too good not to take a set here. His forehand does serious damage on grass as evidenced by his 26-12 career record on turf. Bublik also has a gigantic serve with other-worldly feel for the ball. He can serve, volley and slice his opponents to death.
I think both men should have their shine here before one ultimately problem-solves better than the other.
Pick: Over 39.5 games (-115 via DraftKings)
Roman Safiullin (+130) vs Denis Shapovalov (-155)
8:05 a.m. ET
I had the absolute treat of watching Denis Shapovalov duel Roman Safiullin at the 2022 ATP Cup, a match I watched out of the corner of my eye at a crowded establishment as I completely ignored my close friends around me.
As someone who watched that match, which was their first encounter on tour, I was absolutely shocked Shapovalov was able to come away the winner. Safiullin hits a huge ball and clearly made Shapovalov uncomfortable out there, nearly taking the first set and then nabbing the second before the Canadian would win.
Shapovalov has won both meetings in their career, but he's also looked better entering those matches than he has for the bulk of the season. I don't love the way he's played over the last month, even if the wins have been coming, and I think he's in serious danger of losing here.
Safiullin has been packing a huge punch with his serve and should really put the onus on Shapovalov to come up huge in pressure moments. I don't think that's a very good recipe for him to win.
Pick: Safiullin ML (+130 via FanDuel)
