Fritz vs Tiafoe Odds
| Taylor Fritz Odds | -275 |
| Frances Tiafoe Odds | +210 |
| Over/Under | 40.5 (-120o / -110u) |
| Time | How to Watch | Friday, 7 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds via DraftKings. For tips on how to watch US Open tennis, click here. | |
Two Americans vie for a spot in Sunday's US Open final in a historic match under the lights in New York on Friday. This should be appointment viewing for the entire nation.
Taylor Fritz will be looking to finally exorcise the demons he's had at this tournament in the past as he continues on the US Open run of his career while Frances Tiafoe will play in his second career US Open semifinal, looking for a better result than his five-set loss to Carlos Alcaraz in 2022.
Can Big Foe pull another magical performance out of his racquet, or will the better of the two Americans shine brightest?
Let's break down this all-American US Open semifinal and get into my Fritz vs Tiafoeprediction, picks and best bets.
Fritz Reaching New Heights
The 26-year old did take out Rafael Nadal en route to his first Masters 1000 title two years ago at Indian Wells, but this is certainly the highest level he's ever played in his career.
Fritz has now come through back-to-back top-10 players in Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud, shaking off some early set losses to win each in four. He's returned serve brilliantly — something that we haven't always been able to say over the years — and on his own serve he's been unstoppable, with 81% of points won behind the first delivery.
The American conjured up an impressive 14 break points last round against Zverev — one of the biggest servers on tour — which should have him ready for the matches ahead. His forehand continues to a ton of damage while his reliable two-handed backhand has yet to break, and it would appear there's not much in his way of making the final — or even taking it home.
Can Tiafoe Find His Best Level?
The crowd favorite has played the part of two athletes in his career. In some seasons, he's seemed content with what he's been able to achieve the year prior and that hunger to achieve more hasn't been present. In a few, he's looked incredibly hungry to raise his level even higher and has played with real purpose and focus as an underdog.
Tiafoe's "good" side has been present this summer as he's looked to re-write his story after a down 2023. He made the final of Cincinnati and has pulled up his bootstraps here at the US Open to win some tough matches. Unfortunately, the mental game is only part of tennis, and his level simply hasn't been there.
The World No. 20 has ben struggling to serve well all summer, and here in New York those problems have only gotten worse. After serving a middling 57% against Ben Shelton, he landed just 52% of first serves against Alexei Popyrin and 50% against Grigor Dimitrov. Without the serve popping, Tiafoe is going to be vulnerable, and we did see him receive some great fortune in his last two matches with Popyrin blowing three set points to level their fourth-round match and Dimitrov looking hampered throughout their quarterfinal before eventually retiring.
Simply put, Tiafoe will need to find his best level of the season to make it into his first Grand Slam final.
Fritz vs Tiafoe Pick
The head-to-head between these two is rather damning, with Fritz winning six of their seven encounters. Worst of all, Tiafoe's only win came in their very first meeting which was back at Indian Wells eight years ago.
Fritz has been able to comfortably make it through any version of Tiafoe, and he even dusted him 6-3, 6-4 in Acapulco last year despite a bad serving performance. They met once at the Grand Slam level, with Fritz eliminating Tiafoe from the 2022 Australian Open in straight sets.
Strange things can happen on Arthur Ashe Stadium when there's an American involved, and it should be said this will be the highest-stakes match they've ever competed in. With that said, Fritz should have no issues with Tiafoe on paper.
Tiafoe's serve is too great a liability right now, particularly with arguably the top server remaining in the draw on the other side of the net. Fritz should easily crush plenty of second serve winners here and probe his opponent's serve just as he did to Zverev on Tuesday. If he gains a foothold here, he could be a runaway train given his serving prowess at this tournament.
He enters a decent favorite, but somehow it still doesn't feel as though oddsmakers are respecting Fritz quite enough.
