Sebastian Baez vs. Pedro Martinez
| Baez Odds | -125 |
| Martinez Odds | +100 |
| Over/Under | 22.5 |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 4 p.m. ET |
| Odds via Caesars. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here. | |
One player will secure his first ATP title Sunday when Sebastian Baez and Pedro Martinez meet in the Chile Open final in Santiago.
Martinez made one prior final, falling to Casper Ruud in Kitzbuhel in three sets last year. The 21-year-old Baez will be playing in his first championship match, but he's no stranger to silverware. Baez won six Challenger titles in 2021, with all of those coming on clay.
The pair has met once prior, with Baez defeating Martinez in May of 2021. That match was played on a clay court Challenger event in Zagreb, and Baez ousted Martinez, 3-6 6-3 6-4.
It's been a tough road to the final for both players. Martinez and Baez have both gone through intense three-set battles against seasoned Tour veterans.
The Spaniard got by two in-form players in Jaume Munar and Alejandro Tabilo, while Baez advanced past Juan Pablo Varillas, Juan Londero, Thiago Monteiro and Albert Ramos Vinolas en route to the final.
Baez has conceded break points consistently throughout the tournament, but he's been able to generate them at a rapid pace, and he's converted them at an even better pace. In his four matches, Baez has generated 36 break points, converting at a 53 percent clip. He's conceded 37, but has also saved 70 percent of them.
Martinez has had a somewhat similar story, converting on 14 of his 28 break opportunities while saving 24 of the 32 he's allowed. Those are the margins that allow players to make runs in tournaments, and it's paid dividends in a big way.
We could be in store for some quality ball-striking, as both players are solid off both wings, but we could also see some high-level tennis in big moments, creating an entertaining matchup.
Betting Value
While this matchup is one likely to be played on thin margins, I'm inclined to side with the Argentine at a reasonable price.
There's no question he's one of the most potent clay-courters on tour right now, quickly rising through the ranks to combine solid consistency off of the ground with finesse and continuously growing power.
It's allowed him to dominate the Challenger Tour, but it's clear that Baez belongs at the top level. Martinez is a player with a similar mindset and to an extent, skillset, but Baez has the most impactful weapons.
His forehand will likely dictate points at a higher rate than Martinez can generate, and given the impact of the elevation on play in Santiago, it's no wonder Baez has found success attacking and shortening points.
Baez's clay court Elo Rating is 70 points higher than Martinez's right now, largely due to the insane consistency he's had over the past half year.
I'm expecting Baez to take the initiative throughout a large part of this match, and his defense is solid enough to keep him moving forward when Martinez raises his level.
I wouldn't go much higher on this number, but at -135 or lower I think Baez is worth the bet. His implied probability of 57% at that number is slightly below what I think it should be, so at -125 odds I would certainly make the play.
Pick: Baez ML (-125)
