The ATP Tour has moved into its clay season, but before we head into the Masters tournaments that are played throughout the red clay of Europe, we start in Houston and Marrakech for two 250-level events.
For today, we'll focus on the Houston matches that feature battles between Frances Tiafoe and Marcos Giron, as well as Jack Sock and Cristian Garin.
Here is how I'm betting the two matches, as well as my thoughts on each.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.
Jack Sock (-125) vs. Cristian Garin (-105)
7:30 p.m. ET
If you have followed the tour for a number of years, this line would make absolutely no sense considering recent history. But if you look to the most recent history for each player, it makes a bit more sense.
The typically clay-centric Garin is 0-3 on the surface this year, but throughout the South American clay swing he was dealing with a shoulder problem that limited his game. Prior to that stretch, the Chilean actually found a bit of success down under on hard courts, amassing a 3-3 record.
Sock comes into this match having found a bit of form in the new year, securing three main draw tour-level wins in the American swing. He hasn't played a tour-level clay-court match since the 2020 French Open, but Sock has shown that he's a very capable clay court player.
The American is 72-41 in clay court matches across all levels throughout his career, an impressive record for an American player.
While form certainly favors Sock, there have been indications that Garin is feeling better physically, and if that's the case, he should be a far bigger favorite on clay.
Garin was 30-13 on clay courts in 2020 and 2021, and while this isn't the same Garin (at least for now) from those seasons, a level close to that would make him a solid favorite.
The Elo Rating gap on clay between the two isn't too significant, with Garin holding a 50-point edge, but this is a favorable position for Garin to regain a touch of form ahead of the clay season.
Sock's ability to gain free points is limited significantly by the surface, and if Garin is feeling better, he should be able to control rallies in a consistent manner.
Pick: Cristian Garin -105 via Caesars
Frances Tiafoe (-220) vs. Marcos Giron (+175)
8:50 p.m. ET
This is a bit of a surprising price for a few reasons.
First, Giron holds a 1-0 head-to-head record with Tiafoe, and that match came fairly recently in the fall of 2021 at the Paris indoors. Giron also had a far more successful clay season in 2020, amassing a 5-5 record while Tiafoe posted a 4-7 mark.
Further, Tiafoe is coming off of an elbow injury that only allowed him to return to the tour in Indian Wells. He was absent since the Australian swing, while Giron has been playing week-in, week-out. Tiafoe holds a clear Elo edge on the surface, but recent form overall and each player's most recent clay experience points to the contrary.
That isn't to say that Giron will come out and throttle Tiafoe, but the 36% implied probability he's being handed is disrespectful. At worst, this match is a 50-50 both ways, and stylistically it could work in Giron's favor as well.
Giron is a counter-puncher while Tiafoe likes to play first-strike tennis, and on a slow clay surface, there's a chance that Tiafoe could get a touch impatient playing someone like Giron.
In terms of serve, when looking at the duo's stats on hard courts there isn't much of a differential either. Giron is winning 78% of his service games while Tiafoe is at 79%, and Giron is at 16% return games won while Tiafoe is at 17%. Giron has a marginally better ace-to-double fault ratio, but all-in-all the differences are very thin.
At +175, Giron is getting serious value.
Pick: Marcos Giron +175 via DraftKings
