Monday was kind to us as our ATP Rome picks crushed. Bernabe Zapata Miralles won the first set he played and Borna Coric cruised home in the second set to cover.
On Tuesday, the men will play out the round of 16, with plenty of matches to choose from. Let's delve into two that look to feature some solid betting opportunities.
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ATP Rome Odds & Picks
Jannik Sinner (-900) vs Francisco Cerundolo (+525)
8:30 a.m. ET
This is a strong matchup, as Jannik Sinner looks to keep building on the momentum he's built in 2023 by reaching yet another quarterfinal – this time in front of a raucous home crowd.
He takes on Francisco Cerundolo, who is no slouch on clay courts and should give him a run for his money.
You may not believe that last part if you take a peek at an odds screen, since Sinner is an overwhelming favorite on Tuesday, but that is simply far too disrespectful to a near-top 30 player, playing on his best surface with a decent first serve and excellent forehand.
Not only does he hit from his forehand wing with power, but he has solid weight to that shot that plays well on clay courts. I'm not making the case that he is better from the baseline than Sinner, but he has weapons of his own and should be able to construct several holds of serve.
He's also the more athletic player in this one for my money and finding a break of serve or two along the way in this match is certainly within the realm of possibility.
Consider the fact that he's nearly reached the price of Alexander Shevchenko (Sinner's last opponent) in the markets. The young Russian is making a name for himself at the moment, but he's primarily been down at the Challenger level.
Contrast that with Cerundolo, who has made his presence felt on the Tour for a few seasons now and they're simply not comparable.
The Argentine may have started slow in each of his first two matches, but he dominated the second and third sets in each and his form is just fine at the moment.
He may not win, but this exaggerated pricing on the moneyline gives us some intriguing options with other bets that are pretty heavily correlated with the moneyline.
Pick: Over 19.5 games (-110 via BetMGM) | Cerundolo +5.5 games (-105 via BetMGM)
Borna Coric (-240) vs Fabian Marozsan (+180)
1 p.m E.T.
Back to the well with Coric it is!
I was fading the Croatian in the early parts of the season, believing he was overrated off his runs in Cincinnati last August and in Vienna in the winter. But, it feels like he made a deep run in Madrid, got a few favorable matchups in Rome and now the betting markets have decided to give up on him.
Taking on Challenger Tour regular Fabian Marozsan, I'm more than happy to back him with a spread under four games.
Yes, Marozsan just beat Carlos Alcaraz. That, however, does not make one a tour-level pro or the odds-on favorite to keep chugging ahead in this draw.
In fact, the wins in Rome are the first ever ATP Tour main draw wins the Hungarian has managed to pull off.
Further, he absolutely redlined against the world No. 2, with some incredible drop shots and low-margin groundstrokes that were landing with depth at an absurd rate. Asking him to do that again is a big task.
Finally, I'm a big fan of Coric when it comes to the game style matchup here.
Whereas Roberto Carballes Baena had a strong return game to pressure Coric's serve, but couldn't rush his forehand wing, Marozsan may be able to rush his forehand from time to time, but his return game isn't likely to be able to take advantage of Coric's serve.
I'll take the ATP Tour player, who plays a higher margin brand of tennis and has a huge athletic edge and a significantly better backhand, despite the headlines all focusing on Marozsan's upset.
Pick: Coric -2.5 games (-135 via Caesars)
