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During the second day of the Australian Open quarterfinals, the men's side will consist of a top-10 battle between Novak Djokovic and Andrey Rublev and an all-American tilt between Tommy Paul and Ben Shelton.
We're getting right into it, so dive in below for my best bets for these two matches in Melbourne.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing Australian Open matches.
Tuesday Australian Open Odds & Picks
Novak Djokovic (-650) vs. Andrey Rublev (+470)
3:30 a.m. ET
It’s simple: Djokovic is on a mission in Melbourne. Whether it’s revenge for not being able to compete in last year’s tournament or the fact that he’s just in a tier of his own in tennis right now, Djokovic looks nearly unbeatable.
Beyond dropping a set to Enzo Couacaud, Djokovic has cruised past Grigor Dimitrov and Alex de Minaur to get to this quarterfinal matchup against Rublev. There's been talk about a hamstring injury, but there seemed to be zero issues against de Minaur.
First night session that I couldn’t watch live but looks that I just missed another demolition job.
26 vs. 9 winners, 0 break points face.
Djokovic vs. the field indeed. https://t.co/zFBN1vqTGV
— José Morgado (@josemorgado) January 23, 2023
And while Rublev is playing great tennis in his own right, I don’t see him making this match all that competitive.
Rublev is a top 10 player, but he hasn’t yet risen to the status of “consistent Grand Slam title contender,” just yet.
He has never reached the semifinals of a major and while this event seems to be the perfect opportunity to break through, his draw wasn’t exactly favorable.
Rublev is coming off arguably the most dramatic and best match of the tournament so far against Holger Rune. It lasted over three and a half hours, with the final set consisting of constant blown leads and comebacks.
Djokovic also has a significant advantage in terms of mental toughness. Rublev is uber-competitive, but his outbreaks occasionally distract him from the mission at hand.
And in terms of history between these two, Djokovic has the advantage as well. He has never played Rublev in a major, but cruised through the Russian in two meetings at the ATP Finals.
Rublev’s only win against Djokovic came in a 250 event on clay.
While 6.5 is a lot — especially for a quarterfinal match in a major — I’m not going to overthink this play. Give me the better, more mentally tough player.
Pick: Djokovic -6.5 games (+100 via DraftKings)
Tommy Paul (-245) vs. Ben Shelton (+200)
10:30 p.m. ET
One of the biggest stories of the Australian Open in 2023 has been the Americans taking over the men’s draw. Eight players reached the Round of 32 and three remain as the country looks to snap its Grand Slam drought.
Two of the three will meet in this quarterfinal tilt.
Paul is coming off a career year in 2022, and he has certainly carried that momentum over into 2023 by reaching his first-ever Grand Slam quarterfinal.
He has elite court coverage and athleticism; however, what will be huge for him in this match against Ben Shelton is his serve.
And he’s actually served very well in this event, getting broken just twice besides his second round match against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Even though the Spaniard broke him five times in that duel, Paul still produced 18 aces.
On the other side, Shelton has put himself on the map. The former Florida Gator just turned pro last year and has only 11 ATP Tour-level matches under his belt. This is also just his second major.
Shelton has turned heads, though. This is what his third-round opponent Alexei Popyrin had to say.
“Honestly if this is the way he plays day in, day out, the guy is top 10 in six months. Maybe he can play better than the way he played today, but if he continues playing the way he played like this, then he’s a force to be reckoned with, honestly.”
Shelton’s biggest weapon is his serve, and while Paul was 16th on tour last season in Return Rating, he hasn't faced Shelton yet.
I like Paul to win this match, but it may take him a set or two to make adjustments and get used to the pace behind Shelton’s serve, first ball and forehand.
And with Paul serving at a high level himself, I expect multiple long sets.
While I do have some concern about Shelton’s fitness — he’s coming off of a five-setter and is not used to playing long, near four-hour matches — the adrenaline of this spot will cure all and help push this total over.
Pick: Over 39.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
