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After two frustrating first-round losses on Jack Draper and Quentin Halys, it's time to start fresh with the second round of the Australian Open.
This time around, I'm targeting two slight favorites in off-the-radar matches.
So, let's dive in now to get the top Tuesday Australian Open odds and picks.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing Australian Open matches.
Tuesday Australian Open Odds & Picks
Botic van de Zandschulp (-120) vs. Tallon Griekspoor (+102)
12:25 a.m. ET
In an all-Dutch matchup, Botic van de Zandschulp takes on Tallon Griekspoor in the second round of the Australian Open.
While both of these players are familiar with each other’s games, they’ve only played three times previously despite being from the same country. While Griekspoor won a 2021 meeting in Amersfoort, van de Zandschulp was victorious in the only time they’ve faced off in an ATP-level main draw.
That 7-6, 6-3 win for van de Zandschulp was an indication of what I’m expecting to come in this matchup.
His most potent weapons are his serve and his forehand, and he uses angles successfully to contain his opponents.
The Dutchman ranked in the top 50 in Serve Rating, first serve percentage, percentage of first serve points won and percentage of service games won in 2022 on hard courts.
Meanwhile, Griekspoor ranked outside the top 100 in every meaningful return stat for 2022 on hard courts, including Return Rating and percentage of break points converted.
I don’t expect Griekspoor to have enough chances to break in order to win this match, which in turn gives van de Zandschulp a much greater edge than the line currently presents.
Yes, Griekspoor is coming off the first ATP title of his career at Pune — where he beat Marin Cilic, among others — but he has limited experience at Grand Slams and hasn’t had great overall success on hard courts (89th Elo Rating, 14-24 career record).
Meanwhile, van de Zandschulp is motivated to finally break through in a major. He’s never made it past the third round of the Aussie Open in his career; however, his result and play against a tough first-round opponent in Ilya Ivashka shows positive signs.
Pick: Botic van de Zandschulp (-120 via DraftKings)
Francisco Cerundolo (-120) vs. Corentin Moutet (+102)
9:45 p.m. ET
There are a lot of question marks in this match between Francisco Cerundolo and Corentin Moutet.
Will Cerundolo be able to take his 2022 success and convert it to a Grand Slam? At this current point in the Australian Open, this is the furthest he’s ever been in a major.
And will Moutet be able to keep his cool?
The 23-year old Frenchman has shown flashes of potential by beating Cam Norrie and Cilic, in addition to reaching the round of 16 at the US Open this past fall. But the issue with Moutet has always been his constant outbreaks of emotion and lack of consistency.
He recently got into an altercation with Adrian Andreev after a Challenger and was tossing his racket and screaming at the umpire during his first-round match against Yibing Wu.
Adrian Andreev and Corentin Moutet.
This is not tennis. https://t.co/eShPymhOc1— Angelo Mangiante (@angelomangiante) September 29, 2022
I’m honestly surprised Moutet was able to keep his composure and pull out that opening-round match, and I have no faith that he will be able to do that again in a tight match against a top 25 player in Cerundolo.
Moutet's Elo Rating of 38 on hard courts compared to Cerundolo’s 67th rating is why this line is nearly even despite a clear difference in the two’s ATP rankings. Cerundolo had zero success during the US Open Series this past summer and isn’t particularly fond of fast courts.
But with Moutet coming off a four-hour match and capable of breaking down at any time, I’m comfortable backing Cerundolo to win one more match in this event.
Give me the fresher, more composed player.
Pick: Francisco Cerundolo (-115 via PointsBet)
