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It's another full day of matches on the Tuesday Australian Open calendar, and I'll be approaching my match picks from a unique angle.
Using my tennis model, I've derived value on two plays, including the matches between Botic van de Zandschulp and Tallon Griekspoor as well as Christopher Eubanks vs. Jiri Lehecka.
Read on to see how the numbers are projecting an edge ahead of the two matches.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing Australian Open matches.
Tuesday Australian Open Projections
Botic van de Zandschulp (-120) vs. Tallon Griekspoor (+100)
12:25 a.m. ET
This line is a tad short for van de Zandschulp. He did struggle at times against Ilya Ivashka in the first round, as he was at one point down 5-3 in the third and in danger of going down two sets, but he turned things around and ended up taking him out in four sets.
The first serve is going to be key in this match and it’s really where van de Zandschulp has an advantage. He wins points on his first serve about 3% more consistently than Griekspoor and wins first serve return points at around an 8% higher rate.
| Stats in Last 52 Weeks | Griekspoor | van de Zandschulp |
|---|---|---|
| % of First Serves in Play | 61.0% | 61.8% |
| % Points Won on First Serve | 69.8% | 72.3% |
| % Points Won on Second Serve | 50.8% | 47.0% |
| % Points Won on First Serve Return | 22.2% | 30.8% |
| % Points Won on Second Serve Return | 51.0% | 51.5% |
(stats via ultimatetennisstatistics.com)
Griekspoor is coming into the match in red-hot form after winning in Pune right before the Australian Open. However, these two have faced off against each other four times in their careers with van de Zandschulp winning all three of their meetings on hard courts.
He beat Griekspoor in straight sets in Winston Salem this past summer and then again at the Dutch Championships. The common theme in both of those matches is van de Zandschulp’s first serve. He won over 80% of the points on his first serve, while Greikspoor was only around 65% of points won on his first serve.
Griekspoor also had no answer for van de Zandschulp’s inside out forehand in both meetings, as he went inside out 39% in Winston-Salem and 32% at the Dutch Championships and in both matches he was hitting winners over 25% of the time.
Van de Zandschulp’s first serve, first serve return and inside out forehand are big advantages over Griekspoor, and it’s the reason why he’s won all three meetings on hard courts.
I have van de Zandschulp projected at -194 and tennis abstract has him projected at 63.3% to win, so I love the value on him to get his fourth hard court win over his fellow countryman at -120.
Pick: Botic van de Zandschulp (-120 via DraftKings)
Jiri Lehecka (-210) vs. Christopher Eubanks (+174)
11:30 p.m. ET
This price on Lehecka is getting a little outrageous. The young American Eubanks pulled off a stunning five-set win over Soonwoo Kwon, who was coming off a title in Adelaide the week before. Lehecka took out the No. 21 seed Borna Coric in straight sets.
The Czech is a name for the future considering he was the fifth seed at the Next Gen Finals in November and has wins over Alexander Zverev and Grigor Dimitrov in the past four months. However, Lehecka's first serve is well below the tour average.
| Stats in Last 52 Weeks | Eubanks | Lehecka |
|---|---|---|
| % of First Serves in Play | 68.4% | 64.5% |
| % Points Won on First Serve | 74.7% | 64.9% |
| % Points Won on Second Serve | 50.4% | 50.5% |
| % Points Won on First Serve Return | 19.9% | 24.5% |
| % Points Won on Second Serve Return | 40.3% | 43.9% |
(stats via ultimatetennisstatistics.com)
As you can see, Eubanks' biggest weapon is his serve and it's massive. He amassed a whopping 42 aces against Kwon in Round 1 and won 76% of his point on his first serve, while also getting it in play 70% of the time.
USO MS Q3: Christopher Eubanks’ point construction, *3-3 0-30 to 15-30, 1st set.
🎥 @usopen qualies feed pic.twitter.com/GtT3SScAqq
— eretzsportmed3 🎥 (@eretzsportmed3) August 26, 2022
He also hits really big, having 83 winners and 49 unforced errors in that first round. Despite winning in straight sets in his first round match, Lehecka was very vulnerable on his serve and largely benefited from converting break points. He was 5-for-9 on break points while Coric was 1-for-7.
I understand that Lehecka has the rest advantage, but for a guy who is well below the tour average in % points won on first serve and return points won, -190 is an awfully big price.
I only have Lehecka projected at -138 and tennisabstract only has Lehecka at 63.3%, so I like the tiny bit of value on Eubanks to dominate on his serve at +174 and secure an upset.
Pick: Christopher Eubanks (+174 via PointsBet)
