The long-awaited quarterfinal stage of the French Open has arrived and we'll be in for a treat as the two favorites to win it all here in Paris are both in action in their half of the draw.
We're expecting two relatively straightforward matches here, but might one damning head-to-head begin to turn around on Tuesday?
Here are my Tuesday French Open picks for Dimitrov vs Sinner and Tsitsipas vs Alcaraz.
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Tuesday French Open Picks
Grigor Dimitrov (+340) vs Jannik Sinner (-450)
8 a.m. ET
It feels foolish that we all doubted Jannik Sinner — the clear best player in the world — heading into Roland Garros, but the hip injury that held him out of Rome was deemed to be quite serious. Even Sinner himself said in press last week that he was waiting to see, just like all of us, how his hip would hold up against some tough challenges.
Well, Sinner has not only erased any concerns about his hip but has proven he can be just as dominant on a clay court as he's been on faster surfaces over the last eight or so months. He'll head into a matchup against Grigor Dimitrov which seems to be quite poetic given it was in Beijing late last year that Sinner was pushed to the point of puking into a trash can before outlasting the Bulgarian in a three-set epic.
As the legend goes, Sinner seemed to be a much different tennis player ever since that moment. He would not only go on to win the match, and the tournament, but has lost just three matches ever since. He's still managing to hit his forehand through the court with ferocity even on clay, and there's little to suggest he's going to slow down soon.
Though Dimitrov not only took a set in that match but managed to top Sinner on clay four years ago, this is a much different player. The Italian ran through Dimitrov in two quick sets back in March when they met in Miami, and the delta between these two is somewhat sizable.
I don't think this line is heavy enough towards Sinner.
Pick: Sinner -5.5 games (-125)
Stefanos Tsitsipas (+300) vs Carlos Alcaraz (-400)
2:15 p.m. ET
Despite his very best efforts, Stefanos Tsitsipas has yet to defeat Carlos Alcaraz in their five meetings. After facing embarrassment at the 2021 US Open following a shocking five-set loss to a teenage Alcaraz and a dusting in Miami, he brought his best level to their first clay-court encounter in Barcelona two years ago and was still only able to take one set in the match, inexplicably firing a ball at Alcaraz's head following the end of the first set out of frustration.
Tsitsipas and Alcaraz both realized on that day that the Greek simply isn't better than Alcaraz, and two straight-set victories have ensued, including one at last year's Roland Garros.
The thing here, though, is that throughout the career head-to-head Tsitsipas has come out with a head of steam and is incredibly motivated to pick up a first career win against Alcaraz and has been laser-focused throughout, playing with a lot of purpose. I say that because it makes me absolutely certain that we'll get his best here, and his best is good enough to beat just about anyone.
Alcaraz, meanwhile, was in a very similar position this year at the Australian Open. He was fresh off a magical performance against Miomir Kecmanovic in the fourth round, which was something of a religious experience, and given he'd had a good grip on his head-to-head against Alexander Zverev seemed to come out far too relaxed and loose, spraying errors all over the court and struggling to find any sort of consistency.
So, if there's anything to give you hope in Tsitsipas here, it's the fact that Alcaraz has had a habit of getting a bit too comfortable, and perhaps too big of a head, many times through his career. The match at the French Open a year ago may not have seemed like a contest given the fact that Tsitsipas didn't take a set, but Alcaraz should be careful to not feel too good about it given Tsitsipas managed to turn things around late, breaking the Spaniard when he served for the match and saved a complement of match points before ultimately losing.
There's enough to build on here, and even if Tsitsipas fails to win a set I think he should cover this number.
Pick: Tsitsipas +5.5 games (+100)
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