As the indoor hard court European swing continues, there's a number of chances to find value.
Though the ATP's latest stop in Bulgaria feels like it should be rough on TV timing, the earliest matches start at 5:00 a.m. ET and continue into the afternoon, so it's not that bad!
Let's get into my best bets for the day.
Match times are subject to change.
Marcos Giron (-230) vs. Jaume Munar (+180)
5:20 a.m. ET
Historically, Munar is a player that thrives on clay and clay only. His 9-22 tour-level record on hard courts may give you the indication that he'll get throttled by Giron, but I don't foresee that being the case.
The Spaniard has been steadily improving his hard court game, beating Norbert Gombos and competing well with Richard Gasquet in Cincinnati before taking a set off Aslan Karatsev in New York.
Munar proceeded to earn a main draw, hard court victory last week in Nur-Sultan against Jiri Vesely prior to pushing John Millman through three tough sets.
Those results don't resemble those of a player that isn't capable of competing against Giron, who's in very good form but likely won't be unplayable. The American has a similar style to Munar, as both like to extend rallies from the baseline and display patience before taking risks.
Munar had a great opportunity to see the exact style that Giron uses when he faced off with Millman, and that could serve as a big advantage. Giron's first and third-round opponents in Metz, Arthur Rinderknech and Peter Gojowczyk, both like to be aggressive by shortening rallies and going for bigger shots.
His second-round opponent Alex de Minaur is more like Millman, but the Aussie is out of sorts at the moment and Munar will be far more consistent in rallies.
I like Munar to compete well in this match and push Giron through service games. It could result in a surprise win.
Pick: 0.5u Jaume Munar +180 | 0.5u Over 2.5 sets +150 via DraftKings
Lorenzo Musetti (-375) vs. Dimitar Kuzmanov (+255)
11:00 a.m. ET
250-level tournaments aren't typically the times when you feel that a player needs to win a match, but when you're a wild card playing in your home country and you've struggled to make an impact on tour, these chances are golden.
Dimitar Kuzmanov has been given a Sofia wild card in every draw since the tournament's inception, but he hasn't been able to get a win in singles. Kuzmanov has a couple of wins in doubles, but those would pale in comparison to a lone win in singles.
The Bulgarian has a nice opportunity to finally break through, as he's matched up against Lorenzo Musetti. The young Italian has been struggling in recent events, with a 2-4 record since the tour moved back to hard courts. Most recently, he was pushed to three sets by Marc Polmans and defeated by Laslo Djere in Astana.
It makes sense to an extent as Musetti's game isn't suited for hard courts. He has a clay background and his style reflects that, as he tries to emphasize spin on his ground strokes rather than power.
Despite this, he had amazing runs in Acapulco and Miami earlier this year, where he went 5-2 in main draw matches. That form hasn't carried throughout the season, though, as he's taken a major dip since then that encompasses all surfaces.
Kuzmanov also hasn't been in the best of form heading into this event, with a 2-3 record on the Challenger Tour in September. However, even though he hasn't delivered in key moments, he's been able to consistently generate break points at a similar rate to his opponents.
With that being considered, I think the price on Kuzmanov isn't reflective of the current levels of each player. I think the 28-year-old is in good shape to push Musetti and earn at least a set.
Pick: Dimitar Kuzmanov +1.5 sets -105 via PointsBet
