The first round of the US Open rolls on as we hit Tuesday in New York, and there are many ways to find value. I've picked out a couple of underdogs who should have some big names on upset alert.
Let's get into how to bet Humbert vs Berrettini and Shevchenko vs Norrie. Here are my Tuesday US Open picks.
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Tuesday US Open Picks
Matteo Berrettini (-190) vs Ugo Humbert (+155)
11 a.m. ET
Don't look now, but Ugo Humbert is playing at a top-20 level again. Once ticketed for big things on the ATP Tour, the 25-year-old has suffered through three poor seasons since his breakout in 2018 and 2019 and he finds himself looking for his first win at the US Open since 2020. This time around, he's poised for big things.
Humbert enters the US Open at 7-3 since we went back to hard courts, and while that record doesn't sound all that impressive he's looked very good in close losses to Tommy Paul and Taylor Fritz, who are both top-15 players in the world. He's taken out some big talents like Alex de Minaur, Arthur Fils and Nicolas Jarry along the way and continues to grow in confidence with each passing week. He's now 34-20 on the year with two Challenger titles and has really looked the part of a top-20 player, which may soon be reflected in his ranking.
Berrettini, on the other hand, has been searching for form for the better part of two years. He's battled injuries and some mental demons, going just 13-11 this year, and since Wimbledon he's had a disappointing hard court swing with a 1-2 record and a loss to one of the coldest players on tour, Felix Auger-Aliassime.
The Italian's powerful game doesn't look so imposing right now as the errors have piled up, and I think he's in big trouble with this first-round draw. Humbert's playing much cleaner tennis and his backhand has looked lethal in recent months. Without many free points coming off of his racquet, I think this is a match Berrettini will lose quite easily.
Pick: Humbert ML (+155 via DraftKings)
Cameron Norrie (-450) vs Alexander Shevchenko (+340)
12:30 p.m. ET
The regression that many figured Cam Norrie would experience has finally hit in 2023. The World No. 16 looks nothing like the man who won Indian Wells two years ago, and he comes into this match with a brutal four-match losing streak dating back to his loss to Chistopher Eubanks at Wimbledon.
While that loss may not look so bad given Eubanks' dream run at the All England Club, losing to Aleksandar Kovacevic as a heavy favorite and a physically defeated Gael Monfils in Cincinnati were very bad results. Norrie looks frustrated mentally and has lacked the aggression that got him to this next level in the first place. His forehand wing has been wild, and he's made some questionable decisions out there.
I'd fear for Norrie against just about anyone in the field, but Alexander Shevchenko is an especially poor draw for him. We saw the young Russian nearly take out Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner earlier this year on clay and on the hard courts this summer he's earned some impressive victories against Sebastian Korda and Marton Fucsovics. He has a massive game with a dangerous forehand, and I think he'll land some body blows against Norrie early in this match.
Shevchenko's got a flair for the dramatic and really gets up for matches like this. He has a ton of talent and that should translate to at least one set against a slumping Norrie.
Pick: Shevchenko +2.5 sets (-130 via DraftKings)
