On day two of the US Open, many tennis fans will likely focus their attention on Carlos Alcaraz in the day session and Rafael Nadal in the evening.
But for me, I'm eyeing two first-round matches that have value from a betting perspective.
Let's jump into these matches.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing US Open matches.
Mikael Ymer (-115) vs. Jason Kubler (-104)
3:30 p.m. ET
This is a battle between two players who have surprisingly stood out at different points this summer.
I’ll start with Mikael Ymer, who made a run at the Citi Open earlier this month. The 23-year-old won four straight matches in three sets — including victories over Andy Murray and Aslan Karatsev — before falling to Nick Kyrgios in the semifinals.
Then there’s Jason Kubler, who has battled injuries throughout his career, but turned into a feel-good story for a couple of weeks on grass. The Aussie made the Round of 16 at Wimbledon out of qualifying and used that momentum to earn a win over Felix Auger-Aliassime in Newport.
Regardless of the recent results from these two, this match won’t grab much attention. But there’s certainly betting value.
Ymer has an Elo Rating of 43 on hard courts while Kubler has won just two main-draw ATP matches on the surface all season. One of those came this past week in Winston-Salem, however, the Aussie’s play has dropped off a bit since the end of the grass swing.
While Ymer is known for his fitness, court coverage and forehand, he’s become much more focused on going on the offensive over the last couple of years.
He showed off that renewed game in D.C, and it certainly worked to his advantage, recording 69 combined winners against Murray and Sebastian Korda.
The Swede has never won a US Open match in his career (0-2), but I think this is the year he gets it done.
Pick: Mikael Ymer (-115 via FanDuel) | Play to -125
Diego Schwartzman (-215) vs. Jack Sock (+176)
8:15 p.m. ET
Let’s be honest, Jack Sock hasn’t done much this summer on the hard-court circuit. He was blown out by Tommy Paul in Atlanta, got bageled in a third set by Maxime Cressy in D.C. and lost in the opening round of qualifying in Cincinnati.
So, why in the world would I play Sock, who is ranked outside the top 100 and made the main draw of the US Open only after Reilly Opelka withdrew?
Well, there’s a few reasons.
First, Sock has proven he is capable of shining in big moments when he wants to. He made the third round at Wimbledon out of the qualifying draw and performed admirably at the 2021 US Open, reaching the third round and taking a set off Alexander Zverev before retiring.
Playing a night match on Louis Armstrong in the final major of the year is a spot where I expect the American to go all out.
The second reason I like Sock to cover the spread is his opponent, Diego Schwartzman, just hasn’t looked right this summer.
The Argentine was disappointing during the grass-court season, losing to Sam Querrey at Queen’s Club and blowing a lead to Liam Broady at Wimbledon. He also didn’t produce any notable results during the North American hard-court swing.
Finally, Sock’s strengths are a perfect counter to what Schwartzman wants to achieve. The 29-year-old uses his solid serve and rocket forehand to his advantage, and that could be a huge plus on these courts, which are playing fast as per usual.
Sock doesn’t want to rally, run all day and counterpunch like Schwartzman, giving himself a potential edge if he can dictate how this match is played.
Remember, in the only meeting between these two back in 2017, Sock won in three sets on clay. Even though they have played only once, these are two veterans who are familiar with each other’s games — they even played on Team World together in multiple Laver Cups.
Back Sock to keep things close.
Pick: Jack Sock +4.5 (-125 via DraftKings) | Play to +4
