Tuesday US Open Quarterfinal Odds, Predictions: Will Kyrgios Continue to Thrive? (September 5)

We have officially reached the quarterfinal round at the US Open.

Two men's matches are set to take place on Tuesday, with Matteo Berrettini taking on Casper Ruud in the day session and the red-hot Nick Kyrgios facing Karen Khachanov under the lights.

Let’s dive into both matches.

Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing US Open matches.

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Casper Ruud (-120) vs. Matteo Berrettini (+100)

12 p.m. ET

Ruud doesn’t get a ton of love from the media — he’s not flashy like Kyrgios or Carlos Alcaraz — but the Norwegian has produced a marvelous year of tennis.

He reached the semifinals of Roland Garros, has captured three ATP titles and has a 42-15 overall record in 2022.

Most importantly, the clay-court machine looks extremely comfortable on these fast hard courts for the first time in his career.

Ruud dropped a tiebreaker against Corentin Moutet in his Round of 16 matchup, but his overall play was strong, especially at the net where he won 33-of-44 points.

That form followed a five-set match against Tommy Paul where Ruud looked unstoppable with his groundstrokes and serve in the fifth set.

Now he has his stiffest test of the event, as he’ll face Berrettini in the quarterfinals.

The biggest key to this match will be Ruud’s ability to conquer Matteo’s elite serve. Berrettini is fifth overall on tour in Serve Rating — including ranking seventh on hard courts. Meanwhile, Ruud is 15th in Return Rating and ninth in Percentage Break Points Converted on the surface.

Berrettini has looked much more powerful in this tournament than at any point this summer, but there were signs of concern in each of his last two matches.

Against Andy Murray, the Italian could've dispatched the Brit in a quick three-set match. However, he faltered mightily in the clutch, only converting 5-of-15 break points and hitting 51 unforced errors overall.

In his Round of 16 match against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Berrettini committed nearly as many unforced errors as winners and needed five sets and almost four hours to advance.

Even though Berrettini previously beat Ruud at the US Open two years ago in straight sets, I’m backing Ruud in this spot. He has adjusted well to the speed of these courts since 2020, and his skills and numbers on return prove he will have chances to break Berrettini’s serve — while also holding his own.

Pick: Casper Ruud (-120 via FanDuel) | Play to -135

Nick Kyrgios (-600) vs. Karen Khachanov (+425)

8:15 p.m. ET

“I’m really glad I’m able to show you guys the work and the dedication, finally. It took me 27 years.”

That was Kyrgios’ quote after he played arguably the best match of his career on Sunday against Daniil Medvedev.

His groundstrokes were perfect, his serve was cooking — beyond gifting Medvedev two breaks in the second set — and most importantly, his tactics were incredibly smart and surprising.

That last part is the reason why Kyrgios has finally taken the next step in his career.

He’s focused and confident. The antics and outbreaks are becoming more rare. Sometimes he lets out his anger at his box, but beyond that, in the biggest moments, Kyrgios has stepped up this year.

So, that brings us to this match vs. Khachanov.

Khachanov’s run has been a bit unexpected given his past history at the US Open (this will be his first quarterfinal) and his results this summer (he didn’t win more than one match in any hard-court events).

His Round of 16 five-set victory against Pablo Carreno Busta was a massive confidence booster, but in Round 3, the Russian had some problems with Jack Draper’s power before the Brit retired.

He has to face another powerful yet much more experienced opponent in Kyrgios.

That doesn’t bode well for him, and that’s why I’m taking the under in this one.

Historically, Kyrgios and Khachanov have gone to six tiebreakers in the eight sets they’ve played against one another, with both matches going the distance.

But the last meeting between the two came at the 2020 Aussie Open. In the two years since then, Kyrgios’ game and mental attitude toward tennis have changed drastically.

There are very few players who can beat Kyrgios when he’s playing like he did in the Round of 16. He has all the momentum right now, and I don’t think Khachanov will keep this one close, especially with the crowd heavily behind the Aussie at night at Arthur Ashe Stadium.

Pick: Under 37.5 (-115 via DraftKings) | Play to 37