Tuesday Wimbledon Best Bets | Safiullin – Cerundolo, Machac – Murray

With so many matches to bet on in these early rounds, we're going to keep the previews and bets coming. To wrap up the first round, here's another pair of men's matches worth betting on at Wimbledon.

Let's take a deeper dive into Roman Safiullin vs Francisco Cerundolo and Tomas Machac vs Andy Murray in my Tuesday Wimbledon Best Bets.

Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing Wimbledon matches.

Tuesday Wimbledon Best Bets

Roman Safiullin (-125) vs Francisco Cerundolo (+100) 

9:30 a.m. ET

On a quick court, I'm going to back Safiullin in a closely-priced match against Cerundolo more often than not.

Neither of these guys have the most impressive resume on grass courts, with Safiullin having plenty of wins last season, but not really beating many strong players (his win against Denis Shapovalov was due in large part to the Canadian picking up a physical knock) and Cerundolo's grass court success coming almost entirely at one tournament in Eastbourne where he won the title in 2023 and is looking more and more like an outlier result.

The clay courter has the weapons to succeed on grass, but even in shorter points he can spew errors a bit too often and still hits a heavier ball that generally doesn't play as well in attack on grass.

Safiullin plays a much more traditional power-based game for quicker surfaces, with flat, aggressive groundstrokes and a serve-centric game.

Give me last year's quarterfinalist to come through a match that may be close, but should favor him more often than not.

Pick: Safiullin ML (-125 via bet365)

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Tomas Machac (-300) vs Andy Murray (+235) 

12 p.m. ET

First things first, there's a decent chance this match doesn't even happen. Murray has been saying for a few days that he's going to try and work his way into the physical shape needed to play, but he's left it up in the air.

That alone should tell you all you need to know about how he's feeling entering The Championships. Just one win in the lead up to Wimbledon and a retirement five games into his second match at Queen's and now he's tasked with playing Machac, who has been excellent on tour in 2024.

Not only is Machac younger and in better physical form at the moment, but his game is built for success on quicker courts as well. He plays a powerful, slap-happy style, and though that may not work on clay where the rallies are longer and the lower margin approach can spew errors, his shots should skid through the courts and allow him to generate his fair share of winners on the day.

The lack of experience on the lawns is the one thing that may work against him, but he did qualify at Roehampton last season and took a set as a big underdog off a much better Cam Norrie in his first match.

Murray has played Machac close in their meetings this year, but with his physical condition in question and now needing to play a best of five match, as this match drags on I'd expect Machac to be able to pull away and cover this number fairly easily in most wins.

Will this void? Most likely. Still, I don't pass on numbers that I think are way off. If I get my money back, so be it. If Murray tries to gut out one more match at Wimbledon, we should be rewarded handsomely more often than not.

Pick: Machac -4.5 games (-115 via DraftKings)