The first day of Wimbledon has come and gone, and after wetting the beak Monday, we're back with some more expert predictions Tuesday.
I'll be looking to fade a sizable home favorite early in the afternoon and will take a similarly large number of games in an all-Russian affair between two capable players.
Here are my expert Wimbledon betting picks for Norrie – Diaz Acosta and Karatsev – Khachanov.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing Wimbledon matches.
Tuesday Wimbledon Predictions
Cameron Norrie (-1400) vs Facundo Diaz Acosta (+850)
9:30 a.m. ET
Cameron Norrie may have had one of the tournaments of his life right here on these grounds two years ago, but it's hard to say he is playing anywhere close to that level here in 2024.
Amid a career breakout in 2022, Norrie reached the Wimbledon semifinals, where he would ultimately fall to Novak Djokovic in four sets. Yes, Norrie theoretically does have a game for grass with his flat backhand, but we haven't seen him replicate the wonderful form on this surface he had in the last three seasons.
Norrie now stands at a disappointing 15-14 this season at all levels. Even in dipping down to the Challenger circuit for some more matches on the turf, he was bounced in the second round of Nottingham by world No. 649 Jack Pinnington Jones. Two more losses to a very old Milos Raonic and grass-averse Emil Ruusuvuori would follow, casting a cloud over Norrie's Wimbledon outlook.
The Brit is projected as a massive favorite due to his talent and experience, but also because his opponent, Facundo Diaz Acosta, has played two grass court matches in his career. The Argentine has also only played 43 times ever off of clay in his career to almost 300 clay-court matches, but he proved in an epic five-set battle in Australia against Taylor Fritz that he's much better away from the dirt than he gets credit for.
The lefty has been a different player this year, with a title on the clay in Buenos Aires and some quality wins over the likes of Francisco Cerundolo, Dusan Lajovic, Nicolas Jarry, Fabian Marozan and a near-victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas. His level is above his ranking, certainly, and I'll take what the oddsmakers are giving us and back a talented player to keep the match interesting. I think you want to bet that he's better than this on a grass court, given he's done nothing but surprise in 2024.
Pick: Diaz Acosta +8.5 Games (-105 via DraftKings)
Aslan Karatsev (+380) vs Karen Khachanov (-525)
9:30 a.m. ET
These two Russians have played banger after banger through the years. Karatsev's rise to prominence, highlighted by his 2021 Australian Open semifinal run, actually began in late 2020 and featured a very close defeat in three sets to Khachanov in Saint Petersburg.
Since that point where he rose to a top-100 level, the matches have been incredibly tight. He was edged 7-6, 6-4 by Khachanov in Toronto three years ago, defeated him in Moscow later that season, and lost in three sets to Khachanov on the grass in Halle in 2022.
Karatsev has never had a great go of it on grass, and he lacks form entering this match after tearing ligaments in his knee back in January. With that said, though, his power should help him to some good performances on grass, eventually, and with the familiarity between the two coupled with some poor form on the other side of the net, this one should be incredibly close.
The world No. 99's lack of form will garner all the attention here, but let's not forget that Khachanov has had a very tough summer to this point, beginning on the clay and carrying over onto grass, where he's 0-2.
Pick: Karatsev +5.5 Games (-110)
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