The Madrid Open continues on Tuesday with 15 matches set to be played across the men's and women's draws.
While it's hard to find significant value on the men's side of things, there are two matches that I believe are worth playing on the women's side.
Read on for betting analysis of Emma Raducanu's match with Anhelina Kalinina as well as Jessica Pegula's bout with Bianca Andreescu.
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Jessica Pegula (-115) vs. Bianca Andreescu (-110)
9:30 a.m. ET
Andreescu returned to the WTA Tour at Indian Wells, and she's done a solid job of picking up early form in her first couple of tournaments. Andreescu has beaten Alison Riske twice, gotten past Jule Niemeier in Stuttgart and thrashed Danielle Collins a round prior in Madrid.
The Canadian has been competing well despite lacking a solid punch behind her first serve. Over the six matches she's played on the season, Andreescu has totaled 14 aces and 19 double faults, and she's struggled to post high first serve win percentages throughout the events. In fact, Andreescu has actually won a smaller percentage of points behind her first serve than her second thus far in Madrid.
Pegula isn't typically known for her clay court prowess, but the American has elevated her play on the dirt over the past two years. Pegula has amassed a 9-5 record on clay since the start of 2021, picking up some nice results along the way. She has beaten Daria Kasatkina, Sorana Cirstea and Kaia Kanepi on the surface.
Pegula's ball-striking has been excellent in Madrid thus far, and her three-set encounter with Camila Giorgi was one of the highest quality battles we've seen thus far at the event. Pegula gutted that match out and throttled Kanepi in the next. She limited the Estonian to sub-50% win rates behind both her first and second serve.
The last and only time that Andreescu and Pegula met, it came in the 2019 iteration of Newport, where Andreescu overcame a first set bagel to win a full-distance match.
Neither Andreescu nor Pegula holds a clay Elo Rating above 1580, but you can expect some quality rallies in this match. Because this is a match that'll be decided on the ground, the balance shifts towards Pegula as she has proven she can be more consistent and stable than Andreescu for longer periods of time.
In each match thus far, Pegula has posted a better winner-to-unforced error ratio than Andreescu. In Andreescu's most recent match against Danielle Collins, the Australian Open finalist didn't look to be in a physically good state at all, taking some of the strength of that win away.
At a pick 'em price, I'll take the player who has been playing at a high level all year over one who is still getting into the swing of the tour.
Pick: Jessica Pegula ML (-115 via PointsBet)
Emma Raducanu (-152) vs. Anhelina Kalinina (+126)
2 p.m. ET
Raducanu has played just seven tour-level matches on clay throughout her entire career, but she's won an impressive five-of-seven, with all of them coming this year.
The 2021 US Open champion faced a lot of questions about her ability to play on clay ahead of the season, but she's answered some of those with quality victories. This has all come after her rough start to the 2022 campaign, so Radcuanu will be particularly happy with her clay swing so far.
Kalinina will pose arguably the biggest test that Raducanu has faced on the year as the Ukrainian is a solid clay-courter with a 36-6 record on the surface over the past two years. Even if those wins are across multiple levels, it's a highly impressive mark that shows how dangerous she can be on the clay.
The 25-year-old limited her first two opponents — Sloane Stephens and Garbine Muguruza — to fewer than 40% of their second serve points in each match, and it's helped her pick up two straight-set wins.
Kalinina suffered a disappointing loss to Petra Martic in Istanbul two weeks ago, but prior to that, she earned solid wins over Elena Rybakina, Alize Cornet and Aliaksandra Sasnovich in Charleston.
The Madrid conditions are helpful for Raducanu as the altitude helps her hit through the court and utilize her first-strike game, but Kalinina is not getting nearly enough credit at this price.
Up against someone who is still inexperienced on clay, Kalinina is well-worth the plus-money bet.
Pick: Anhelina Kalinina ML (+126 via FanDuel)
