The second round of the 2024 US Open begins on Wednesday, and two of the best matches of the day feature four big names on the ATP Tour.
American Taylor Fritz faces Italy’s Matteo Berrettini while Casper Ruud duels with showman Gael Monfils.
Dive in below for my US Open Expert picks and predictions for round 2 in my two-match preview.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing US Open matches.
US Open Predictions & Picks
Taylor Fritz (-215) vs Matteo Berrettini (+160)
8:15 p.m. ET
It’s been 21 years since an American male has won a major championship in tennis, but with five ranked in the top 20 of the current ATP rankings, the state of the sport in the country is far from disappointing.
Tommy Paul, Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe have Grand Slam semifinal appearances, but Fritz is arguably the USA’s best chance at breaking the drought based on his consistency (he’s reached the QFs in three separate Grand Slams).
So, that brings us to this second-round match between the top-ranked American and Berrettini.
In three head-to-head matches, Fritz has dominated the Italian, winning all three matches, with two of them coming on hard courts in straight sets.
Berrettini dealt with major injury issues in 2023 and missed the Australian Open this season. However, since returning, the former top-10 player has found his game with three 250 titles and a finals appearance in Stuttgart.
In fact, in Gstaad, Berrettini took down both Felix Auger-Aliassime and Stefanos Tsitsipas on his way to the title.
That’s the good for Matteo. The “bad" is that those titles came on clay and grass courts, making hard his third-best surface. He’s played one ATP match on a hard court this season, and that was a three-set lost to Holger Rune, who just bowed out in the opening round of the US Open to Brandon Nakashima.
Meanwhile, Fritz hasn’t had great success in Queens. While he reached the quarterfinals last year, he notoriously lost to Brandon Holt in the opening round in 2022.
The American also hasn’t played his best tennis since Wimbledon, losing to Lorenzo Musetti in the round of 16 at the Olympics, Sebastian Korda in the round of 32 in Montreal and Nakashima in the opening round in Cincinnati.
Regardless, Fritz has a big advantage on this surface, and he has a clear method to take down Berrettini (attack his backhand). Even though Berrettini’s serve remains a beast, he has just the 33rd Serve Rating on hard courts, while Fritz is ninth on tour in Return Rating on the same surface.
Also, Fritz has a Serve Rating that sits fourth on tour on hard courts, while Berrettini’s Return Rating is outside the top 45.
In other words, I expect Fritz to avoid break points while attacking Berrettini’s serve with his strong return game.
I don’t exactly trust Fritz in a lot of these major spots, but I think this matchup favors him enough to cover the 3.5.
Pick: Fritz -3.5 games (-105 via DraftKings)
Casper Ruud (-200) vs Gael Monfils (+164)
5 p.m. ET
I’ve been following tennis for nearly 20 years and Gael Monfils is one of my favorite players of all time. But even I can admit that this is a nice spot to sell high on Monfils and buy low on Ruud.
Monfils is coming off a shocking win over Carlos Alcaraz in Cincinnati and carried that momentum into the US Open by notching a four-set win over Diego Schwartzman.
Meanwhile, Ruud withdrew from Montreal due to an illness and followed that up with a first-round exit at the hands of Auger-Aliassime in Cincinnati.
Even still, Ruud reached the final at the US Open in 2022 and is 44-14 this season with two titles to his name.
Monfils is obviously playing better tennis and took Ruud to three sets earlier this season, but he’s still 20-18 in 2024 and is 37-years old.
More importantly, after getting robbed of a couple of events this season due to a stomach parasite and the flu, Ruud is highly motivated and we are presented with another angle in favor of the Norwegian.
“I’m really motivated because I’ve had a few tournaments where I didn’t have the chance to perform as I wanted, big tournaments as well"
I’ll take Ruud -3.5 as I expect him to find his form in this event.
