After having taken a look at a pair of underdogs from the women's draw that may present value on Monday, Aug. 26, let's take a look at some favorites that be a tad undervalued in this US Open preview.
Here are my bets for Sun vs Bronzetti and Bogdan vs Rus in my Monday US Open picks.
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US Open Picks & US Open Predictions
Lulu Sun vs Lucia Bronzetti Prediction & Odds
4:30 p.m. ET
It's really hard to envision a path to victory for Bronzetti that doesn't rely on a fatigue fade of the Kiwi.
Sun has far more pace on her first serve and groundstrokes, is a much more natural hard courter and enters with much more inspiring form in recent months.
She did just compete on Saturday evening in the final of the WTA 500 Monterrey against Linda Noskova though, and as much as I can point to momentum, I feel like the flip side is a short turnaround for the 23-year old.
Still, on a hard court, I have her as a much larger favorite, even with potential fatigue factored in. Bronzetti's record on hard courts has been poor, she hasn't exactly lost those matches to world beaters and her style of more grinding, defensive play is far more well suited to clay.
For those who like to look at the head-to-head record between players, Sun has the only win in this matchup, having won in straight sets by a four game margin in Cincinnati a few weeks ago. I don't think you need that in order to make this bet, but if it reassures you, keep that in mind as well.
The lefty being better almost everything on a hard court means I have her winning at least two thirds of the time, if not closer to 70%. That means a price of anything better than -200 would be incorrect and playable in my book.
Pick: Sun -2.5 games (-120 at bet365)
Ana Bogdan vs Arantxa Rus Prediction: Who Will Win?
4:30 p.m. ET
I cannot believe Rus is getting this much credit against someone like Bogdan on a hard court. While these prices would surely be flipped on a clay court and talent wise they may be fairly close (though they employ different styles), on a hard court I'm not sure why the veteran from the Netherlands is being given a nearly 50% chance to come away with the win.
In today's game, surface specialists are becoming a more rare breed, but Rus fits that description. Problem is, that surface is clay. Playing with heavy spin on her groundstrokes and lacking power on her serve despite her height, Rus is far more proficient on the red stuff than a hard court. Whether one looks at her style of play, records or just her scheduling, that much is pretty obvious.
Many of her seven wins on outdoor hard courts this year have come against fellow clay courters, ITF level competition or now-retired opposition.
Bogdan hasn't been at her best in 2024, but she's much more of an all-court player, possesses far more attacking prowess for hard courts and is coming off a much-needed decent week in Cleveland that saw her reach the quarterfinals as a qualifier. Finally, for those who like the head-to-head stuff, she does have four wins to no losses against the lefty as well. Once more, I don't think you even need that to pull the trigger on this play, but I suppose it's better than no wins and four losses!
Pick: Bogdan ML (-137 at BetRivers)
