The fourth round of the US Open finishes up with a bang on Labor Day with two heavyweight matchups taking place in the men's draw
Let's get into how to bet Jack Draper vs, Andrey Rublev and Alexander Zverev vs. Jannik Sinner. Here are my Monday US Open picks.
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US Open Picks Today
Jack Draper (+190) vs. Andrey Rublev (-240)
12:30 p.m. ET
If you've been following along for the last year or so, or even just during this US Open, you already know where I'm going with this pick.
Jack Draper is a player who is talented enough to be immune to good form. The big lefty has returned to the US Open — the site of his first real breakthrough on tour a year ago — and absolutely decimated some decent opponents through three rounds by dropping just one set on his way here. There were many who questioned his lack of matches entering the tournament, but by now I think it's clear he's playing some of his best tennis right now.
While his body ultimately failed him in a third-round defeat to Karen Khachanov, Draper's fitness has looked a lot better this time around and he's finally made it to one of the two stadiums here for the first time all tournament. We know the Brit to be averse to extreme heat, but while the temperatures will be high on Monday, Draper will have the benefit of going second on Louis Armstrong. I'd expect this one to get underway at roughly 1:00 or 1:30 despite what the estimated start time may indicate, and he'll be able to find some shade on the enclosed Armstrong and its open air construction should cool him down with breezy conditions.
It feels a bit silly to break down this match merely from the standpoint of court conditions, but anyone who knows Draper knows that only his body and extreme heat can keep him from winning matches. His game is massive and it's impossible to pick out a weakness and break it down over the course of a match.
I think Rublev's looked a little less than his best at this tournament with some sketchy sets against Gael Monfils and Arthur Rinderknech in recent rounds, and it's enough for me to give Draper a puncher's chance here.
Rublev may be 2-0 in his career against Draper, but both of those matches were last season. I think the level of both men is a bit different at the moment with Draper's defense looking as good as I've ever seen it. I think that should neutralize Rublev's forehand a bit, and I also don't think he'll have much success on that wing given Draper's strong two-handed backhand. On the flip side, Draper's forehand has done damage through three rounds and he will have the benefit of hitting into a weak Rublev backhand.
I am supremely confident that the 21-year-old will have himself a day here, but as we know in a best-of-five match, stamina can become a major factor later in the proceedings, particularly in the second week of a slam.
With that, I think the best bet on this is for Draper to win two sets. This way, you can avoid the unnecessary risk of Draper finishing off a marathon match. I do give him a great chance to win, but this is the smartest way to bet this one.
Pick: Draper +1.5 Sets (+125 via DraftKings)
Alexander Zverev (+125) vs. Jannik Sinner (-150)
8:30 p.m. ET
As we saw in the third round when Zverev ultimately outlasted Grigor Dimitrov in the second set and decimated him from that point forward, a strong head-to-head record can play a huge factor in tennis. Sure, Dimitrov tired as that one went on, but he lost belief after dropping the second set against a guy who owned an 8-2 record against him in his career. On the flip side, Zverev never really worried all that much about losing that match given the fact that he has proven over the years to be better than his opponent.
Zverev has beaten Sinner in three of their four meetings, losing just once at the 2020 French Open. He's won his last three matches against Sinner, including their match contested at Arthur Ashe Stadium two years ago — the site of their fourth-round encounter. He's also a perfect 5-0 in sets played against Sinner on indoor or outdoor hardcourts.
I think the German is looking just as good as he did before his ankle injury when he was a bonafide top-five player on the ATP Tour. His backhand is doing a significant amount of damage and he's continued to land his first serve at ridiculous rates, doing so 70% of the time against Dimitrov.
Though Sinner is an excellent returner in any sort of scenario, he does most of his damage off the second. He also struggles against big hitters, and you'd certainly consider Zverev one of those.
Sinner looked incredibly vulnerable against Stan Wawrinka in the third round and in my estimation a younger, fresher Wawrinka would have taken that match. He had Sinner on the back foot in a ton of rallies and just ultimately failed in the fitness department, but there should be no such concerns with Zverev in this match.
It may not come easy, but I think Zverev should win this match. I wouldn't make him the favorite, but I'd surely make this a pick 'em at worst, making him a value play at plus money.
Pick: Zverev ML (+125 via DraftKings)
