Best of five tennis is back, as the next two weeks brings us the final major of the 2024 campaign.
Let's delve into a pair of men's matches from Monday's US Open action.
Here are my bets for Etcheverry vs Mpetshi Perricard and Baez vs Darderi in my Monday US Open predictions.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing US Open matches.
US Open Predictions
Tomas Martin Etcheverry (-165) vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (+125)
2:30 p.m. ET
This is one of the more puzzling prices of the opening round from the men's draw. I know Mpetshi Perricard enters having lost his last few matches, but I'd make the case that at least one or two of the players he lost to (in competitive fashion, I might add) are better on a hard court that Etcheverry.
Further, he was actually priced up in those contests with much more respect than he's being show here.
For starters, let's get the obvious out of the way. He has one of the best first serves on tour. Though his return game isn't the strongest, that alone should ensure this remains fairly close. Then there's the fact that Etcheverry may not be a fish out of water on hard courts like many who prefer clay, but his topspin heavy forehand certainly isn't nearly as effective and I'm sure he'd rather take on the big-serving Frenchman on the dirt.
I'm not going to hold losses to Jordan Thompson or Zhizhen Zhang against the 21-year old and his loss to Mackenzie McDonald came from a set up and saw him go 0-for-17 on break points – a feat that we may not see again this season in any match on tour.
At decent plus money, I'm happy to back the underdog in this one.
Pick: Mpetshi Perricard ML (+125 via DraftKings)
Sebastian Baez (-128) vs Luciano Darderi (+100)
4:30 p.m. ET
As much as I understand the desire to fade Baez on hard courts, this is a spot where I'm going to back him. Let's look at this matchup a bit closer.
These two are both clay courters, there's no denying that. One of these guys has found wins on hard courts at tour level though. That's the elder of the two. Sure, they've come primarily against lower-end competition, but what exactly is Darderi on a hard court? Certainly not exactly a stern test.
Then there's the physicality part to this. First, Baez has played far more matches in the best-of-five set format. That alone means I'd trust him a bit more in a match that could wear down one or both players. That's not the only thing that concerns me with Darderi from a fitness standpoint though. He was struggling with his arm against countryman Flavio Cobolli in Cincinnati in a match that saw him retire early in the second set. He then went on to play in Winston-Salem and look thoroughly unconvincing, especially on serve.
In terms of style, as I mentioned, both would prefer clay courts. Darderi may have the edge with his first serve, but his second serve, which is spin-heavy to provide protection on the dirt, is incredibly vulnerable on quicker and lower bouncing surfaces.
I'm not sure what exactly Darderi does better on a hard court or what pedigree he's shown that surpasses that of Baez. It isn't about Baez having a sterling reputation on the surface, it's that he's proven much more than his opponent and has fewer question marks entering this match than the upstart Italian.
Pick: Baez ML (-128 via BetMGM)
