The 2024 US Open gets underway on Monday, Aug. 26 and the bookmakers view the final Grand Slam of the year as a three-horse race between Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner.
Alcaraz is the favorite to win his second US Open and third Slam of the year (French Open, Wimbledon) at +175. That puts him slightly ahead of 2024 Olympic Gold Medalist Djokovic (+230) and the No. 1 seed Sinner (+340).
The overwhelming likelihood is one of Alcaraz, Djokovic or Sinner wins the tournament, but there are some questions to be asked of all three contenders as they check into Flushing.
It's been another banner season for Alcaraz, but he is coming off consecutive losses. He fell to Djokovic in the Gold Medal match in Paris and then was stunned by Gael Monfils at the Cincinnati Masters. The Spaniard also has a couple of tricky early opponents (Denis Shapovalov, Jack Draper) in his section of the draw.
Djokovic has really found his game in the back half of 2024 and will be buoyant after winning gold in Paris, but he is 37-years old and hasn't played in almost a month. The Serb did get a kind draw, however.
Sinner will have the most skeptics after he tested positive for banned substances but wasn't suspended. The Italian has been sensational for most of this season, but that dark cloud will loom over him and the frenzied crowd in New York could turn on him. More importantly, Sinner got dealt a tough draw with Tommy Paul as a potential foe in the round of 16 and Daniil Medvedev as his likely quarterfinal opponent.
With that in mind, let's see if we can't pick out a couple of players who should be able to outrun long odds at the US Open. Here are my US Open predictions.
US Open Predictions, Long Shot Picks
Matteo Berrettini (+8000 via DraftKings): There is always one section of the draw at any major that begs bettors to take a flier and there's little question that it's Berrettini's side of quarter 4. A matchup with Taylor Fritz in Round 2 is tricky, but if you get through that you are looking at a terrific path to the round of 16 and quarterfinals, where Berrettini would likely face Alexander Zverev. The Italian has made plenty of deep runs at Grand Slams, is the former World No. 6 and is one of a few players beyond the top six or so that has legitimate winning upside in this field.
Tommy Paul (+11000 via FanDuel): This is a terrific number on one of the most dangerous players outside of the top 10. The New Jersey native has yet to have a shining moment in Flushing, but he's been to a semifinal at the Australian Open (2023) and looked a real threat at Wimbledon until he was dispatched by Alcaraz in the quarterfinals. Paul is just 1-2 during the North American hard court swing, but his overall body of work in 2024 paints him as a player who can absolutely give you a run for your money at this price.
Alex de Minaur (+11000 via FanDuel): This is a tricky one because de Minaur has been out for almost two months with a hip injury, but his mentor/coach Lleyton Hewitt is backing him to be fit enough for a tournament that should suit his style of play. A tireless worker who won't mind the heat, de Minaur was offered at a much shorter price than this ahead of Wimbledon. The injury is obviously playing a role in his number drifting, but that also provides us with a terrific buying opportunity should the Aussie find his legs in the early rounds. A potential quarterfinal against Alcaraz is daunting, but the rest of the draw isn't that scary here.
