The third round of the US Open wraps up on Saturday in New York, and we should be treated to two incredibly captivating affairs between four evenly-matched players as the day concludes.
Here are my US Open tennis picks for Arnaldi vs Thompson and De Minaur vs Evans.
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US Open Schedule, US Open Tennis Picks
Matteo Arnaldi (-120) vs Jordan Thompson (-110)
4 p.m. ET
Whoever comes away the winner here will have to leave it all on the court in a match that will surely be a grind, and my money is on the experienced Jordan Thompson to emerge victorious.
The Aussie is enjoying a much-deserved career revitalization in 2024 after years of competent play, and his hard court record now stands at a sparkling 21-10 as he's pushed for a career-best ranking of 29 or better in the world. The summer has been a good one, with an appearance in the Atlanta final and big wins over Jack Draper, Ugo Humbert and most recently Hubert Hurkacz in his latest match, and now I believe he's ready to make the second week of a Grand Slam.
In facing a pest in Constant Lestienne in the first round and coming through with flying colors, Thompson should be ready here to face another backboard in Matteo Arnaldi. The backhand slice he employs should really make life difficult on the Italian, who loves to create offense off high-bouncing balls, and on top of that Arnaldi should experience a surprising jump in competition when stepping to Thompson.
Zachary Svajda poses no real problems to a top-100 player and Roman Safiullin has been a shell of himself, and neither are playing with the form and belief that Thompson has at the moment. I think in a close match, you simply take the player who's done more winning this year and should have the mental edge as a result.
Pick: Thompson ML (-110 via DraftKings)
Alex de Minaur (-575) vs Dan Evans (+425)
7 p.m. ET
I'll always gladly admit when I was wrong, but I think I was only half wrong in fading Alex de Minaur in the second round.
The issue was in having too much faith in a shaky baseliner in Otto Virtanen. Despite a promising run over the last couple of weeks, he donated plenty of loose service games and errors to de Minaur and after leading 5-2 in the first set of their encounter and keeping him at bay in the third, he succumbed to the pressure and handed gifts over to the Aussie.
Well, Dan Evans is the polar opposite of Virtanen and should have a very strong chance to pull the upset as a result. He is only really beaten by an opponent who can paint lines with big winners and gives absolutely nothing away to his opponents on the court, putting the onus on de Minaur to play a clean and competent match.
I'm just not sold that he'll be able to do that after injuring his hip at Wimbledon in mid-July and taking a month away from the game with no matches leading up to the US Open. He survived Marcus Giron in four sets to begin his week and was fortunate not to drop two of the first three to Virtanen, and in both it's been clear he's worse than his best at the moment.
Evans is an animal, and he showed no signs of fatigue in his last match against a pesky baseliner in Mariano Navone. There shouldn't be much of a question regarding his fitness here after an injury of his own kept him off the court for a few weeks earlier this summer, and it would appear he's fully back in form — and when that's been the case in his career he's been able to beat anybody in the world.
The Brit will make de Minaur beat him here, and I don't think he'll be up to the challenge.
Pick: Evans +7.5 games (-125), Evans ML +425 (0.5u)
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