There will be plenty of great action on Labor Day from the US Open in Queens, and as the day wears on I think we'll see two of the top seeds in the men's draw run into a bit of trouble against some pesky opponents they've played before.
Here are my US Open tennis picks for de Minaur vs Thompson and Sinner vs Paul.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing US Open tennis matches.
US Open Schedule, US Open Tennis Picks
Alex de Minaur (-380) vs Jordan Thompson (+285)
5 p.m. ET, Louis Armstrong Stadium
These fellow countrymen have now met five times at tour level, and while de Minaur leads the head-to-head by a commanding 4-1 there's been little between the two. Two of the last three meetings have gone the full three sets, and two of the previous four have featured at least one tiebreak set.
It's a testament to just how evenly matched these two Aussies are and how similarly they play. Neither player possesses overwhelming power on their serve or from the baseline, and both rely on low, flat groundstrokes to bait their opponents into donating errors.
Though it would seem the head-to-head proves that de Minaur is the better player, it doesn't reflect the current form book. Not only have the two failed to meet in the last two seasons, which have featured a ton of improved play from Thompson, but de Minaur seems far off the extraordinary level we saw from him at the start of the year which delivered him a first win over Novak Djokovic and a career-high ranking inside the top 10.
De Minaur's playing here for the first time since injuring his hip at Wimbledon, and that hop hasn't been tested much through three rounds. He recently received gift after gift from a shaky Otto Virtanen in what appeared to be a troubling match from the jump, and he ran into an incredibly fatigued Dan Evans in the third round who was unable to move and thus unable to win a game for the final two sets.
This one will test the fitness and form of de Minaur, and with Thompson playing the tennis of his life at the moment and staying close to de Minaur in their matches I expect a tight one here.
Pick: Thompson +6.5 games (-125 via DraftKings)
Jannik Sinner (-600) vs Tommy Paul (+425)
8:30 p.m. ET, Arthur Ashe Stadium
This is another match where both players should be feeling the head-to-head mentally. Though Sinner did dispatch Paul 6-4, 6-4 in Toronto last year, they had split their previous two encounters in dramatic three-set affairs.
Paul's all-world defense and fitness makes him a tricky matchup for Sinner, who likes to end points quickly with his devastating power, and in his current state, he should pose even more problems.
Sinner's hip injury which flared up a few months ago doesn't seem to be completely gone, as we saw him reach for it several times during his run to the Cincinnati title just a couple of weeks ago. Now, he's played 10 sets of tennis in the span of a week and he'll be stepping on the court against a player who few compare to when it comes to making your opponents scramble around the court.
I'm not entirely convinced Paul will win this match, considering his history here at the US Open has been filled with heartbreak, but negotiating a set at the least seems incredibly reasonable at this price. Sinner's had slow starts to matches several times in the last few weeks and if Paul can grab a break lead early I think he'll ride the home crowd to a crucial set.
Pick: Both Players To Win A Set (-128)
Get the most out of your US Open wagers with our DraftKings promo code.
