The fourth round of the US Open will get underway from Queens on Sunday, and while there are are two top seeds remaining looking to capitalize on a wide-open men's draw, I think they'll meet some tough tests here.
Here are my US Open tennis picks for Ruud vs Fritz and Nakashima vs Zverev.
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US Open Schedule, US Open Tennis Picks
Casper Ruud (+210) vs Taylor Fritz (-275)
1 p.m. ET
It sure would seem as if Taylor Fritz is playing well enough to win the US Open at the moment, but that hasn't stopped him from running into trouble as he hits the second week of a Grand Slam. In fact, it was right here at the US Open where last year, Fritz played brilliant tennis through three rounds only to be stopped in his tracks by Novak Djokovic in straight sets of a very disappointing quarterfinal.
Now, he'll have to go to war with Casper Ruud, a player he's never been able to beat.
Ruud took Fritz out at the French Open this year in a match he looked up for winning after a brilliant clay season, and at the ATP Finals in 2022 and an exhibition event in 2023 the story remained the same.
Ruud's forehand can be too much for Fritz to handle, even with a high bounce that plays to his liking, and the Norwegian deserves some credit for the way he's played at this tournament.
His win over Jerry Shang wasn't without drama, considering it went the full five sets, but the Chinese played out of his mind and to his full potential for two and a half sets before fatigue set in. We've already seen that Fritz's best level, or close to it, hasn't been good enough to put away the big-hitting Ruud, and I think that'll make for a pretty close match on Sunday.
There are many ways to play this — you could simply play the over on total games or even take Ruud to win two sets — but the game spread would be my selection as I think Ruud should comfortably cover this in even a four-set loss.
Pick: Ruud +4.5 games (+100 via FanDuel)
Brandon Nakashima (+300) vs Alexander Zverev (-400)
4:30 p.m. ET
Brandon Nakashima is playing the tennis of his career right now, fresh off an utterly impressive win over Lorenzo Musetti which was something of an exhibition in ball-striking.
Now, he'll step to Alexander Zverev, who seemed taken a back by a massive service night from Tomas Martin Etcheverry last match and a barrage of big forehands. I think we'll see something similar here given the ferocity with which Nakashima is hitting from the back of the court, and his serve has been on fire and should pose just as many issues for the German.
The two have met twice on tour, with Nakashima taking a set as a rising youngster back in 2020 before playing three extremely tight sets in a 3-0 loss to Zverev at the 2022 US Open.
There's been little between them in their careers, and at the moment it would certainly seem as if Nakashima is ready to give Zverev the best fight he's been able to in his four seasons at tour level. Nakashima, now 23 years of age, has had a promising season with a 54-24 record and has made two straight runs on the hardcourts in Montreal and Cincinnati to get him ready for a breakthrough this week in New York.
I think Nakashima will knock on the door of a career-defining upset here, and he will cover the spread as a result.
Pick: Nakashima +4.5 games (+105)
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