The third round of the US Open begins on Friday from Queens and as the day rolls on we'll see two acclaimed players take the court in Casper Ruud and Novak Djokovic. There are some troubling signs with both, and I'm not entirely confident things will be all that easy for two of the top seeds in the men's draw.
Here are my US Open tennis picks for Ruud vs Shang and Popyrin vs Djokovic.
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US Open Schedule, US Open Tennis Picks
Casper Ruud (-250) vs Jerry Shang (+200)
5 p.m. ET
Ruud has begun working himself back into form at this year's US Open, but after moving by a player ranked outside the world's top 100 in Bu Yunchaokete and an old and tired Gael Monfils the task at hand will be quite difficult here in the third round against the beloved Jerry Shang.
Hailing from China, Shang's garnered plenty of crowd support all across the world with his positively fun style of play, cracking winners all over the court and playing with massive pop off his left-handed forehand. Here in the United States, there's an even deeper connection considering he spent his youth training down in Florida.
Shang is just 19, but he has already found himself knocking on the door of the top 50 after making some runs this season — most recently in Atlanta where he came through a tough qualifying draw to reach the semifinals.
The youngster has already collected some wins over some of the world's top players like Ben Shelton, Frances Tiafoe and Alexander Bublik and he looks poised to push for a career-best win here over Ruud.
Ruud's backhand looked even shakier than normal against Monfils, particularly late in the encounter when he attempted to end the match with a winner off that wing. I think we'll see a similar story against the big-hitting Shang, who will provide plenty of pace into the Ruud backhand as a lefty and tempt the World No. 8 into going big.
Despite the run to the final here in 2022 — something that came quite easy with the draw breaking his way — Ruud really hasn't had a ton of success at this tournament. That was the only year in which he reached the fourth round, and he was notably bounced after just one match last year against another big-hitting Chinese player in Zhizhen Zhang.
I'm not entirely sure going with Shang outright is the best way to play this one, but I do think he'll bring himself to the doorstep of a win before we see if the accomplished Ruud will rise to the occasion like many top players, such as himself, generally do.
Aside from his easy first-round match this year, Ruud has dropped four sets in his last three matches here and Shang is feeling up to the challenge at this year's event after stunning Bublik in the first round from 2-1 down.
Pick: Shang +1.5 sets (-105 via DraftKings)
Alexei Popyrin (+550) vs Novak Djokovic (-800)
7 p.m. ET
If you haven't watched Novak Djokovic yet this week — something that's understandable given he's been a massive favorite through two rounds — the Serb has looked absolutely dreadful.
He was fortunate that Laslo Djere injured his abdomen in the second set his match on Thursday, considering at 4-1 up it appeared Djere was poised to send that one five sets just as he did last year against Djokovic. In the first round, he simply played an incapable opponent in Radu Albot.
This is where I think Djokovic will fall into a bit of trouble. He appears to be battling an illness, and perhaps his knee which was surgically repaired in mid-June isn't feeling 100% either. Whatever it is, he's been stumbling around behind the baseline, losing his balance, and blowing his nose constantly as he receives plenty of recovery drinks from his team of coaches.
Djokovic looks for all the world to be at least slightly vulnerable, and now Alexei Popyrin — who has taken a set from Djokovic in each of their last two meetings, will be licking his chops. He nearly sent their third-round match at Wimbledon the distance after taking the first set and pushing the fourth to a tiebreak after remaining close in the two previous stanzas, and his big serve should ask some serious questions of Djokovic.
We saw Djere serve incredibly well on Wednesday, and Popyrin's first delivery is of significantly higher quality. With two clean wins through two rounds over pesky opponents and a stellar 15-5 hard court record across all levels, the Aussie should claim at least one set here before we see what Djokovic is capable of at this tournament.
Pick: Popyrin +2.5 sets (-140)
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