The final Grand Slam of the season is about to commence at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Queens, with the US Open starting on Monday.
This year’s tournament has the potential to be crazier than ever. With so many rising stars on the men’s side and a weakened old guard, it feels like a near-guarantee we will get a first-time Slam finalist, if not a first-time winner.
With that, it’s time to break down each quarter of the men’s draw and figure out where the value sits entering the competition.
Quarter 1
This could wind up being the most chalky quarter of them all or the craziest one. There really is no in between.
Daniil Medvedev is the No. 1 seed, but he has multiple people who could take him out. Nick Kyrgios just defeated Medvedev in Washington and almost took him five sets in Australia earlier this season with absolutely no form. He projects to be Medvedev’s fourth-round opponent.
Then there’s Felix Auger-Aliassime, who memorably had Medvedev on the brink of elimination in Australia with a two-sets-to-love lead. The Canadian is excellent on quick courts such as these and lurks on the bottom half of this bracket, potentially as Medvedev’s quarterfinal opponent.
It’s easy to see either one of those guys knocking off the No. 1 seed, but it’s just as easy to envision Auger-Aliassime folding once again in a big tournament and losing early or Kyrgios falling to his best friend Thanasi Kokkinakis in the first round.
It’s tough to tell what happens here, but I’d still have my money on Auger-Aliassime making the quarters against either Kyrgios or Medvedev.
Best Bet: Leave
Quarter 2
For my money, this is the best quarter to grab a future. Stefanos Tsitsipas did have an impressive win over Medvedev in Cincinnati, but his larger body of work would still tell us that he’s still not really the elite talent on fast surfaces that he is on slow ones.
That’s not to say Tsitsipas isn’t a virtual lock to go to the fourth-round, but this matchup against Matteo Berrettini could get interesting should the Italian make it to the fourth.
Berrettini is a former semifinalist here at the US Open and Tsitsipas couldn’t have a worse track record at this tournament. He's never advanced past the third round.
We should also give a shoutout to Taylor Fritz here. Once again, he has a pretty easy draw when it comes to making the fourth round. It’ll be put up or shut up time there, but even then he should be the favorite over Casper Ruud, Tommy Paul or Sebastian Korda.
Best Bets: Taylor Fritz (+400 via BetMGM) | Matteo Berrettini (+500 via BetMGM)
Quarter 3
Without a doubt, this is the toughest quarter. Carlos Alcaraz still looks strong, but he’s lost a little bit of his edge these days with just two wins in his last five matches. His draw is also extremely tough.
Sebastian Baez isn’t a very kind first-round draw, and in later rounds Alcaraz could face the Cincinnati champion, Borna Coric, then Marin Cilic or Dan Evans.
After that, he’s got either Hubert Hurkaccz or Jannik Sinner likely waiting for him in the quarters. If it’s not those two, that means Lorenzo Musetti or Grigor Dimitrov is playing splendid tennis again.
I really have no idea what’s going to come out of this draw, but I couldn’t feel worse about Alcaraz.
Best Bet: Leave
Quarter 4
Did we ever think we’d be saying a quarter at a Grand Slam belongs to Cameron Norrie? Well, this one kind of does.
That’s because we’ve hardly seen Rafael Nadal play tennis since he was injured at Wimbledon, and when he did come back he was taken to the cleaners by Coric in a third set.
Fabio Fognini has beaten Nadal at the US Open before, and Aslan Karatsev is starting to play better again, reminiscent of last year's Australian Open run.
The winner there won’t be very easy for Nadal to dispatch in straight sets come the second round, and Miomir Kecmanovic or Frances Tiafoe could give him a match later on in the third and fourth rounds.
This draw actually isn’t all that terrible for Nadal, but it’s hard for me to see a guy playing as well as Norrie rolling over should the two meet in the quarters.
Norrie has previously played Nadal very closely and he also looks to be, without a doubt, one of the most reliable bets on tour right now.
He’s rarely lost, and when he has it’s been to a top-10 player or one in top-10 form.
Best Bet: Cameron Norrie (+550 via BetMGM)
Outright Bets
From the above, you can clearly see I’m not a fan of betting on the favorites in Flushing, N.Y.
I do think Medvedev will win this tournament if I had to call one champion, but with two potential landmines before he even gets to the semifinals his price of +260 is not a very good one to take.
Similarly, Alcaraz and Nadal are leaves for me. Nadal is in probably the worst form we’ve seen him in since the Citi Open last year, when he cut his season short due to injury.
I can’t remember a time where he entered the US Open looking worse. It’s hard to suggest betting on a guy who hasn’t won since July, and it’s just as hard to suggest Alcaraz at these odds given the fact that he’s never had great success in a best-of-five format and he has a brutal draw.
Targeting the Tsitsipas quarter with bets on Fritz and Berrettini is a good play.
The American might be one of the five best men in the draw right now – just based on form and ability – and he will get an incredible amount of crowd support throughout this fortnight.
Berrettini is a speculative bet here, but at close to +3000 it’s a must-take for me. He has come back from injury twice this season, and every time he has looked to be in pretty good shape.
His last two matches came in a deciding set tiebreak to the talented Tiafoe and then in Montreal to eventual champion Pablo Carreno-Busta.
Berrettini’s serve and forehand are lethal on these fast hard courts, and if you want proof that they are still weapons look no further than his two grass-court titles this summer, both which came after a long layoff.
He made the semifinals before and made them in Australia earlier this year. He can do it again.
Best Bet: Matteo Berrettini (+3300 via BetMGM)
