It's one of the best weekends of the year. Not only is it the Labor Day long weekend, but we have scintillating action from New York City at the US Open throughout the three days. Let's delve into a few third round tilts on Saturday from the women's draw!
Here are my bets for Swiatek vs Pavlyuchenkova and Kalinskaya vs Haddad Maiain my US Open picks from the women's draw at the US Open tennis tournament.
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US Open Picks
Iga Swiatek (-910) vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (+600)
7 p.m. ET
An obviously huge favorite entering her third round match, it's tough to back the world No. 1 in any way other than the looking to back her to get things done really quickly in straight sets via the under.
I do think Pavlyuchenkova has a decent first serve and strong forehand – two characteristics that can make Swiatek a bit more vulnerable away from slower clay courts – but with the courts in New York not playing all that quickly and the inability to the Russian to really trouble or rush the Swiatek backhand all that much in crosscourt rallies, along with the fact that I'm not huge on her physicality on court, I do think this number is off by at least a half game, if not a full one.
If Swiatek can limit her error count and not do Pavlyuchenkova's job for her, she should cruise to another quick, straight sets victory and get to the fourth round where she'll look to make up for last year's loss from a set to the good.
I'd prefer the under 19 here if available, but with most books only posting 18.5 or 19.5, the under 19.5 at anything -140 or better is fine as well.
Pick: Under 19.5 (-135 via BetRivers)
Anna Kalinskaya (-150) vs Beatriz Haddad Maia (+120)
9:15 p.m. ET
This one is a matchup between one of the breakout stars on the women's tour of 2024 and one of the top-25 players that has disappointed the most since her quarterfinal run in Madrid. It's worth noting that she did win several matches in Cleveland last week, but the week before a Grand Slam at a 250 with entry list restrictions is tough to put much stock in.
Haddad Maia's serve has really taken a step back this year and her second serve in particular has been shockingly poor.
She has cruised through her last four sets, but didn't play anyone nearly as proficient as Kalinskaya on hard courts, can't play as much offense as the Russian and she did lose the opening set to Elina Avanesyan in the first round.
As for the world No. 15, she too has had a fairly easy path through two matches, but she has also dominated her matches as one would hope to see from one of the better players on tour. She's been more solid on hard courts this season, counterpunches well and hits flat balls with sneaky pace that allow her to play front foot tennis.
I'm happy to back a player I consider to be both more talented and more reliable at the moment.
Pick: Kalinskaya ML (-150 via bet365)
