Let the US Open betting begin! It's time to tackle the women's 64 first-round matches.
For Monday, I found four matches that I think hold value. Let's dig in.
Daria Kasatkina +140 vs. Johanna Konta
Monday, 11 a.m. ET
I'm fading the more accomplished player here but one who's not in great form. Despite having a tremendous spring and early summer, Konta appears to have lost some gas in the late summer stretch.
The Brit is very streaky and tends to spiral downwards when mired in a slump. Since her game is based on timing and small margins, she can really struggle to get back on track when things aren't going her way.
Backing Kasatkina has been far from profitable in 2019. The Russian is just 10-16 on the year, but has flashed some solid hard court results this summer.
Her 3-3 summer hard-court record may not look great on the surface, but two of those wins came against accomplished players Mihaela Buzarnescu and Barbora Strycova.
And Kasatkina's most impressive showings came in Toronto, where she beat Angelique Kerber in the first round 0-6 6-2 6-4. She then came up just short against eventual champion Bianca Andreescu, losing 5-7 6-2 7-5. Matches like that illustrate her form is coming around.
The slower US Open hard courts should benefit Kasatkina’s defensive, counterpunching style as well. As the courts have slowed down in recent years, Konta’s performance in New York has waned. Konta has lost in the first round in each of the past two years, while Kasatkina has a second and fourth-round showing.
It's incredibly difficult to watch Kasatkina serve at the moment (especially her second serve), but these slower courts should help her get a ton of balls back that will likely lead to unforced errors from Konta.
*I would bet Kasatkina down to +120
Harriet Dart +150 vs. Ana Bogdan
Monday, 11 a.m. ET
This line perplexes me. In fact, throughout qualifying, Bogdan’s heavy favorite prices have confused me.
Bogdan's 2019 season has been a bit of a disaster. And her only summer hard-court tournament was an ITF event where she won two matches before losing to Caroline Dolehide in straight sets.
Nothing about her play this year has led me to think Bogdan should be this high of a favorite against a half-decent player in New York.
In fairness, Bogdan is the more accomplished player, but she's also two years older than Dart. Bogdan has made the second-round in all three prior US Open appearances, one of which included a run through qualifying. But again, she's just not in great current form.
Dart's form coming into New York also isn't great, going 2-2 in ITF tournaments this summer, but this is her preferred surface. And earlier this year, she posted decent hard-court results, beating the likes of Priscilla Hon, Andrea Petkovic and Dolehide.
I just don't get this Bogdan love from oddsmakers and the market at the moment. In what should be a competitive match, this price tag is too good to pass up on.
*I would bet Dart down to +120
Fiona Ferro -155 vs. Daria Gavrilova
Monday, 1 p.m. ET
One player is in career form and one player has won six matches on Tour this year.
The 22-year-old Frenchwoman, Ferro, is having a career year. She secured her first WTA title and made the semifinals in two other tournaments.
Despite preferring the clay over any other surface, she still racked up wins on hard courts throughout the year.
Meanwhile, Gavrilova has completely lost touch with her game in 2019. If she plays to her best, she can definitely win this match. But I don’t think her head or game are currently in the right place.
Gavrilova didn't even play any hard-court lead up events prior to the US Open. She also came into NYC late in the week (Thursday) from Australia, so it appears that she may not be all-in on the final Grand Slam of the year.
And for what it's worth, they met earlier this year at Eastbourne where Ferro cruised in straight sets (6-3, 60) — although it was on grass.
Neither player hits big, so expect many long, grinding points. That should ultimately favor Ferro, who has the match fitness and hard-court form advantage after making it through qualifying in the Bronx before bowing out in the second round to Qiang Wang.
*I would play Ferro up to -175
Magdalena Frech +112 vs. Laura Siegemund
Monday, 4:30 p.m. ET
Frech comes into her first-round match in OK form, having won three US Open qualifying matches. Admittedly, she's struggled a bit over the past year-plus but seems to be coming back into form of late.
She also has a lot of talent as evidenced by her impressive ITF wins as a teenager. She's just struggled to consistently put it all together.
This is also partly a fade of clay-court specialist Laura Siegemund. In her US Open warm-up event in the Bronx last week, she lost in qualifying, then made it to the main draw as a lucky loser where she lost in the first-round.
In fairness, Siegemund's two losses were competitive three-set affairs to accomplished players (Mihaela Buzarnescu and Jil Teichmann) but I still don't think she's playing her best tennis on a surface she doesn't prefer.
After Wimbledon, Siegemund played three clay-court summer events where she should have made deep runs but instead lost as a favorite in all three to inferior players. She went 4-3 at those clay events with no impressive wins and a trio of disappointing losses..
This should be a competitive match if both players play to their average ability, but I think Frech has the edge, coming in with more confidence and form after making it through qualifying. I also just fancy her game on the hard surface much more than Siegemund.
*I would bet Frech up to -105
