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The second round down under at the Australian Open concludes on Wednesday, and we have some incredible young talents taking the court.
The matches shouldn't just be entertaining ones to watch, but I also think there is some value in backing a pair of teens on Wednesday night.
Find picks for Fils vs Griekspoor and Hurkacz vs Mensik in my latest Australian Open picks.
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Australian Open Odds & Picks
Arthur Fils (-165) vs Tallon Griekspoor (+135)
10:15 p.m. ET
Just a few days after backing Griekspoor as a dog and getting a huge comeback from two sets down, I'm actually going to fade him this time around.
I actually think coming off five sets, Fils may present a tougher test than Roman Safiullin did for him when he was fresh. Yet, the markets believe he's actually more likely to win this one than the last.
I can't agree with that and don't think he should be valued above 40% against the explosive young Frenchman.
Fils faced a stern task from the huge-serving lefty, Jiri Vesely, in the opening round, dropping the opening set. But he came through that in the end without expending too much energy. Vesely actually struggled to get that set over the line, saving break points in numerous games near the end of the opener.
With a huge serve, big groundstrokes, a better return game and less time on court, this matchup seems like a good one for Fils. If the last of those potential advantages does come into play, we could also see a lopsided set to close things out, which certainly helps with any spread.
Pick: Fils -2.5 games (-110 via DraftKings)
Hubert Hurkacz (-550) vs Jakub Mensik (+350)
11:30 p.m. ET
Another teenager that's really played some strong tennis in recent times is the young Czech, who qualified and made a run to the third round in New York last summer, and has replicated the qualifying run in Melbourne.
Whether he can replicate that main draw run is yet to be determined, and it won't be easy against the big-serving Hurkacz, but I wouldn't count him out, considering his own game is so impressive.
Mensik has a strong serve and is perfectly capable of dictating from the forehand side. In fact, with Hurkacz's forehand being his weakness, one has to wonder if Mensik will look to get into as many crosscourt forehand exchanges as possible. It would certainly be his best chance at creating some short ball that he can attack to put away against the surprisingly strong defending of the Pole.
I think the best way to approach this match is the total. We know Hurkacz plays an incredibly high number of tiebreaks, particularly in quick conditions. With Mensik possessing the power to generate consistent holds of serve and Hurkacz struggling on return fairly often, I'm surprised this number isn't closer to 39 or 39.5 games.
Shopping around here is key, with much of the market at 38.5 and Caesars offering a much more valuable 37.5-game total.
Picks: Over 37.5 games (-120 via Caesars)
