The final day of round 1 at the French Open is upon us, with a few storylines to watch closely. Last week, a pair of American women wrapped up their preparation for the French Open with titles at the two WTA Tour stops. Can they keep it going? Let's delve into each of their opening matches.
Find picks for Hubert Hurkacz vs Brandon Nakashima and Matteo Arnaldi vs Alexandre Muller in my Wednesday French Open predictions.
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Wednesday French Open Predictions
Hubert Hurkacz (-300) vs Brandon Nakashima (+240)
5 a.m. ET
It's absolutely wild to me that Hurkacz is as large of a favorite as he is in this match. I understand he's been a more constant presence on the main tour, but there are several factors that make me believe this one should be a much closer match than the current prices would indicate.
For starters, these guys are both serve dependent players. With Nakashima being so effective on serve across surfaces, and Hurkacz a subpar returner at best, logic would dictate that this should be closer more often than not.
Then there's the fact that Hurkacz still leaves a lot to be desired on the dirt. His 12-3 record to this point may trick one into believing he's an improved and much more competent clay courter, but a bit of digging would reveal that his record may be a bit of a mirage.
He beat four players in Estoril to lift the trophy, covering the spread just once and more importantly, only playing one man that made it directly into the main draw in Paris this week.
In Monte Carlo, his win against Jack Draper (who has been a bitter disappointment in 2024) came by the slimmest of margins in a third set tiebreak and his other win coming by one break of serve against an aging Roberto Bautista Agut.
In Rome he was down a set and break to the underpowered Sebastian Baez and was fortunate to reach the quarters and his first match at Roland Garros saw him require five sets as a monster favorite to beat the weaponless Shintaro Mochizuki.
Give me a player well suited to exploit his lack of return game and who should have the more aggressive game from the baseline to keep things close, win a few sets and possibly pull off the outright upset.
Picks: Nakashima +1.5 sets | Nakashima ML (+115 via DraftKings & +240 via bet365)
Matteo Arnaldi (-152) vs Alexandre Muller (+115)
5 a.m. ET
I don't think I'd call myself a Matteo Arnaldi fan per se, but I certainly really like his game. One of the many young Italians that has surged up the rankings in recent years, it's no surprise why. His serve isn't dominant, but it's not exactly under attack with regularity either. He has a very nice forehand, counterpunches well, can generate incredible width from anywhere on the court to flip the script and scrambles with the best of them when defending.
It's one of the more well rounded games out there, and as he continues to polish his game, we should continue to see him rise up the ATP ranks.
Muller has done a nice job in recent times as well. Probably more on the consistency end of the spectrum, Muller has developed his forehand in the last few years. It's far from being a weapon, but he certainly can dictate play on that side a bit more these days, which is essential if you want to have any kind of staying power on the main tour.
I just don't see him as quite the player that Arnaldi is, and though he's steady, over the course of five sets I would trust the talent to win out, especially when it's not like Arnaldi's floor is particularly low and Muller can wait out those spells of poor form.
Muller did look great last round against Luca Nardi, but that was the polar opposite type of match from a stylistic standpoint and it's actually a reason I had a bet on him to move through. Don't let yourself overreact to one match, especially if the matchup changes drastically in the next round.
I have Arnaldi on the other side of -175 so think there is plenty of value to be had in this price range.
Picks: Arnaldi ML | Arnaldi -2.5 games (-152 & -110 via BetMGM)
