Two of the top four seeds in the women's draw have already booked their places in the semifinals, with the other two looking to do the same on Wednesday. If they manage to, it would be the first time in 15 years that has happened at a Grand Slam event.
Here are my previews for Elena Rybakina vs Jasmine Paolini and Aryna Sabalenka vs Mirra Andreeva in my WednesdayFrench Open quarterfinals picks.
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French Open Quarterfinals Picks
Elena Rybakina (-345) vs Jasmine Paolini (+275)
7 a.m. ET
First up on Chatrier, we have Rybakina squaring off with Paolini — one of the 2024's season rising players after her victory at the WTA 1000 in Dubai back in February. I'm not overly enthusiastic to bet this match, but I have this spread at five with the market making it 4.5 in Rybakina's favor.
That, of course, could come down to service order should Rybakina win by a break in each set, but I do think that fails to consider the higher likelihood of Rybakina finding a more lopsided set along the way.
Though her serve hasn't been as strong as it typically is this tournament (expected on slower clay courts), it's still well ahead of Paolini's, as is her game from the baseline. She has the kind of power that obviously prefers to play on quicker courts, but she can still cut through slower clay as well.
I wouldn't count Paolini completely out of the equation considering she's one of those players that can ramp up the aggression and pack a surprising amount of punch on her forehand, but is still better off playing the more consistent, counterpunching type of role within a match, which helps limits her error count while allowing her to use her opponent's pace against them.
The problem is, the best four players in women's tennis are just on another level to the rest of the tour at the moment. They may employ different styles, but the fact is if they play most players on tour 100-200 times, each of them is going to win a pretty strong majority of those matches.
Finally, Paolini continues to win matches, but she has done so in fairly mediocre fashion. I remain unconvinced by her performances, even though she had several dominant sets in her last two matches against Bianca Andreescu and Elina Avanesyan (oddly needing three sets in each match).
With the match not on her racquet here and an average level in her performances for my money in prior matches, I'll take a small position backing Rybakina.
Pick: Rybakina -4.5 games (-114 via BetRivers)
Aryna Sabalenka (-425) vs Mirra Andreeva (+330)
8:30 a.m. ET
As many waves as the teenager as made on the women's tour since the start of last year, Andreeva has always been made to look her age when she's come up against the world No. 2.
That's no surprise, considering the ultra-aggressive and ultra-powerful style the Belarusian employs, seizing control of points on return and dictating on serve. The two matches they've played to date have seen Sabalenka win by an average of 7.5 games. Even if you want to give Andreeva's returning and defending more credit since this is their first meeting on slow red clay courts, the five game spread doesn't seem right.
Looking at the odds and probabilities, the difference from the -4.5 to the -5 here is fairly large and it's to the point that I would just suggest passing on any book where the even number spreads aren't offered. If you can find the -5 near even money at one of your books, I'd go ahead and take that. Otherwise, this may be a match you want to live bet.
Sabalenka has yet to drop a single set between the Australian Open and French Open (this includes a 6-1, 6-2 beatdown of Mirra's older sister Erika Andreeva in the opening round) and considering the huge edge she has on Andreeva whether it be in experience, power, matchup or strength, I'm not sure what points to that happening her. Not impossible, but incredibly unlikely.
Pick: Sabalenka -5 games if available
