The value from the women's draw at the US Open on Wednesday is plentiful, and I have another pair of matches I'm betting as the second round gets underway in New York.
Here are my bets for Mertens vs Tomljanovic and Badosa vs Townsend in my Wednesday US Open predictions from the women's draw.
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US Open Predictions for Wednesday
Elise Mertens (-250) vs Ajla Tomljanovic (+200)
11 a.m. ET
I'm not sure if this is an overreaction to Tomljanovic's tough hard court summer or if the market is just stuck in the past where Mertens was a top-15 type player that only lost to those at the top of the game and with big power to hit her off the court.
Either way, a +200 valuation on the Aussie is disrespectful, considering she can go toe-to-toe from the baseline with Mertens, has a decent serve and the ability to hit through her groundstrokes.
Even if you wanted to downgrade her over the losses to Varvara Gracheva and Camila Osorio (the latter a tough matchup at altitude with how tough it is to hit through her), I think to be consistent, you'd also have to downgrade Mertens, who surprised Naomi Osaka in Toronto, but has been fairly mediocre outside of that for the better part of five months now.
With this being a close matchup in my mind, I'm happy to back the player that needs to win just over a third of the time to make this a profitable bet in the long run.
Pick: Tomljanovic ML (+200 via bet365)
Paula Badosa (-250) vs Taylor Townsend (+195)
11 a.m. ET
A 20-11 record this season on hard courts is nothing to scoff at for Townsend, but I'm more concerned with the quality of competition that she's managed to beat in those 20 victories. In the name of brevity, let's just say that other than a lopsided defeat of an uninterested Jelena Ostapenko as a lucky loser in Toronto, there isn't much to write home about.
The losses are more telling to me, since better competition has tended to hand her defeats, and rather swift ones at that.
Emma Navarro lost a beat her in straight sets (though Townsend was fairly competitive in that one), Jessica Pegula beat her soundly, Elena Rybakina needed three sets, but still won by a four game margin and Badosa herself sent her packing in ruthless fashion back in Australia.
Then there's the fact that Badosa has the much bigger game and is finally re-finding her form. Injuries and the stop-and-start nature of her schedule made it tough for the former world No. 2 to find her rhythm for quite some time, but this summer she's looked healthy and the result has been a WTA 500 title in Washington and a semifinal in Cincinnati, where it took the aforementioned Pegula three sets to oust her.
Her first round match in New York was also impressive, as she set the tone for the next fortnight with a dominant win against Viktorija Golubic.
I'll take the surging Badosa to find a fairly comfortable win in this one.
Pick: Badosa -3.5 (-120 via BetRivers)
