We're on to the third day of Wimbledon, and while we've got some first-round matches that will need to finish up on the card we'll be treated to a ton of captivating second-round affairs.
I'll be targeting two underdogs at the start of play, one of whom will be facing a player who has zero expectations of winning on the grass and one of which seems to bring his best tennis on the biggest stages.
Here are my Wimbledon predictions for Fognini-Ruud and Cazaux-Bublik.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing Wimbledon matches.
Wednesday Wimbledon Odds & Wimbledon Predictions
Fabio Fognini (+360) vs Casper Ruud (-475)
6 a.m. ET
It's hard to say Fabio Fognini is a great grass-court player. Yes, the 37-year-old Italian has put forth some great performances on all surfaces throughout his long career, but reaching the fourth round of Wimbledon is something he's never done, leading to a middling 25-32 overall record on the turf.
With that being said, Fognini had made the third round here in four consecutive trips prior to a first-round exit to the talented Tallon Griekspoor in 2022, and after missing grass season last year I think he's poised to once again push for a spot in the third round at this year's championships.
On Monday, we spoke a lot about Casper Ruud and his aversion to grass. His style, which is entirely built around topspin, makes life incredibly easy on opponents when playing on grass. The results on this surface have been so poor through the years that Ruud's elected to entirely skip grass season, save for Wimbledon, two years in a row now in a signal that he's not expecting to win many matches away from clay or hard courts.
He hardly made it look easy on Monday, failing to cover the spread against Alex Bolt in a tight three-set match, and I don't think much will change here against a hungry Fognini who is still fighting for wins at this stage in his career after being snubbed from Italy's Davis Cup team last season.
We should see a dialed-in Fognini, and despite his lack of quality on the grass his opponent's track record should level the playing field here quite a bit. I love paying up slightly to get from 5.5 games to 6.5 games, and I think this one should be a sloppy, tightly-contested affair.
Pick: Fognini+6.5 games (-130 via FanDuel)
Arthur Cazaux (+205) vs Alexander Bublik (-260)
7:30 a.m. ET
I think Arthur Cazaux may just be a Slam guy. We saw the Frenchman dazzle at this year's Australian Open, and after a quiet season he gave clay specialist Tomas Martin Etcheverry a close match at the French Open before coming out of nowhere to defeat Zizou Bergs in the first round of Wimbledon as a considerable underdog.
Cazaux's excellent serve should theoretically make him a good player on grass — he plays a lot like Griekspoor, who's been a tough out on this surface. His ability to win quick points and serve big should make for a close match here with Bublik, who has always played well on grass but has made a habit of letting his nerves get him into close matches at the Grand Slam level.
This should be a highly-watchable affair with both guys displaying incredible shot-making ability and creativity, and I think we might be treated to one of the matches of the tournament as a result. I'm not going to be as bold as to say Cazaux pulls off a second straight upset, but this line is more than reasonable.
Pick: Cazaux +4.5 games (-115)
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